NWS SRRS PRODUCTS FOR:
               2006100100 to 2006101500


FXUS61 KBUF 010106
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
905 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.
HIBBERT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES TOWARD THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA STARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN AND THEN WORKING
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NEARLY ALL SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGESTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
AND UPPER TROUGH LIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...BUT MODEL SOUNDING NOT SHOWING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOP INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
OUT CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
NICELY TO BETWEEN +11C AND +13C BY LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S OR APPROACHING 70F.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WRF/NAM A LITTLE
FASTER WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT THAN SLOWER GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE. AT
THIS POINT...THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MORE
OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEREFORE WILL SUGGEST ONLY A LOW
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY (THE DAY MAY WIND UP
DRY IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT). 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM AND NEARING +17C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
(DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ONSET AND ARRIVAL OF CLOUDINESS...SOME
AREAS COULD APPROACH 80F).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF HPC AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH GENERALLY AMOUNTS TO A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER
AS IT SLIPS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN THE CURRENT GFS AND CONTINUITY. MID-RANGE CHC POPS
WILL BE USED TO COVER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDER INCLUDED DUE TO THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE US WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF TOMORROW
MORNING. AS A RESULT...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
FROM VFR TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...YOU CAN
EXPECT NO BETTER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 010727
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EDT SUN OCT 1 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WRF AND GFS VERY CLOSE IN THE EARLY PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. AN 850
MB JET THAT HAS BEEN ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK. WE WILL STICK VERY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY TODAY WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY WEST.
THIS WILL FOLLOWED BY A LOWERING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM TRANSLATES EAST. WE WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT PROJECTED SOUNDINGS ON BOTH THE WRF AND GFS
INDICATE NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LOOKING AT OBSERVED HIGHS ACROSS MICHIGAN YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WE WILL LIKELY BACK OFF FROM CONTINUITY BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
850 MB READINGS IN THE PLUS 5C RANGE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 60S BUT THAT
WOULD BE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE DRYING AND WARMING AS UPPER RIDGING
PUSHES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD RAIN FREE. BOTH
MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES BUT WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION WHERE THE WRF KEEPS
IT TO OUR WEST. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT WE WILL OPT TO
KEEP THE POPS DOWN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES GROW SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. THE WRF INDICATES
A 1005 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WHERE THE GFS
HAS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. IN EITHER CASE THOUGH IT LOOKS WARM
THOUGH WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 OR HIGHER IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF HPC AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH GENERALLY AMOUNTS TO A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER
AS IT SLIPS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN THE CURRENT GFS AND CONTINUITY. MID-RANGE CHC POPS
WILL BE USED TO COVER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDER INCLUDED DUE TO THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE US WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...THERE ARE GROWING SIGNS THAT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
SEVERAL GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COME INTO LINE DURING
THIS PERIOD INCLUDING A STRONGLY POSITIVE NAO AND A NEGATIVE PNA.
WHEN THESE PATTERNS ARE PHASED TOGETHER...AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE...THEN IT TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
REGION.
A DEEP...PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ANCHORED IN
THE VICINITY OF BAFFIN ISLAND WHILE A STRONG RIDGE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE AZORES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG JET FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THAT WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD
SHOTS FROM THE NORTH.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECAST A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE GIVEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TELECONNECTIONS. ALL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS USED IN
THE NAO FORECAST MODEL ARE IN LOCK STEP AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVE
PHASED NAO WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...WITH
SIMILAR AGREEMENT (BUT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VARIANCE) SHOWN FOR A
NEGATIVE PNA (TROUGH IN THE WEST) FORECAST.
THIS ALL BEING SAID...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FROM
NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH MID MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12Z OR SO
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BLO 3K FT EAST OF LK ONTARIO UNTIL LATE MORNING.
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4K FT...THEN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLEARING AND ONLY SCT
CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE FOR SITES SUCH AS IAG AND JHW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJR/RSH
AVIATION...RSH

FXUS61 KBUF 011438
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1038 AM EDT SUN OCT 1 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KBUF AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUING TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
WILL SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...BUT FEEL WITH UPPER TROUGH STILL TO SWING THROUGH...ASSOCIATED
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME DIURNAL HEATING COULD DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 12Z KBUF MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWING
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
THEREFORE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS...WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF HPC AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WHICH GENERALLY AMOUNTS TO A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WHILE THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER
AS IT SLIPS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN THE CURRENT GFS AND CONTINUITY. MID-RANGE CHC POPS
WILL BE USED TO COVER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDER INCLUDED DUE TO THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE US WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...THERE ARE GROWING SIGNS THAT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
SEVERAL GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COME INTO LINE DURING
THIS PERIOD INCLUDING A STRONGLY POSITIVE NAO AND A NEGATIVE PNA.
WHEN THESE PATTERNS ARE PHASED TOGETHER...AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE...THEN IT TYPICALLY RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
REGION.
A DEEP...PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ANCHORED IN
THE VICINITY OF BAFFIN ISLAND WHILE A STRONG RIDGE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE AZORES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG JET FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THAT WILL SERVE AS A BLOCK FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD
SHOTS FROM THE NORTH.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECAST A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE GIVEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TELECONNECTIONS. ALL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS USED IN
THE NAO FORECAST MODEL ARE IN LOCK STEP AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVE
PHASED NAO WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...WITH
SIMILAR AGREEMENT (BUT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VARIENCE) SHOWN FOR A
NEGATIVE PNA (TROUGH IN THE WEST) FORECAST.
THIS ALL BEING SAID...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FROM
NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH MID MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR (AROUND 4
KFT) BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CLEARING AND ONLY SCT CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE FOR SITES SUCH AS IAG AND JHW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 011903
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
303 PM EDT SUN OCT 1 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR +13C SHOULD YIELD
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND APPROACHING 70F.
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
WRF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH MORE OF THE
SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND KEEP
MONDAY NIGHT DRY (THOUGH IF WRF VERIFIES...MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE
RATHER WET).
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
+16C SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IF
CLOUDINESS CAN HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
WRF AND GFS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE 700 MB OMEGA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
NEARLY ALL THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEREFORE SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS...EVEN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE LONGER TERM MODELS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY FAVORING A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HPC CONTINUITY (THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS)...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE US WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EVEN PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SOME MODERATION TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF
MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
OWING TO THE RELATIVELY COOL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE (PRACTICALLY
RIGHT OVERHEAD)...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER/EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE EXPECTED PATTERN HOLDS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COOL
POOL ALOFT IS LEADING TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LATE IN THE DAY...THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND
CONDITIONS THUS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS. THESE SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING...SOME ASSOCIATED MID CLOUD WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 020133
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
933 PM EDT SUN OCT 1 2006
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...RIGHT ON WITH
CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.
HIBBERT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BEFORE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR +13C SHOULD YIELD
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND APPROACHING 70F.
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
WRF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH MORE OF THE
SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND KEEP
MONDAY NIGHT DRY (THOUGH IF WRF VERIFIES...MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE
RATHER WET).
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
+16C SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IF
CLOUDINESS CAN HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
WRF AND GFS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE 700 MB OMEGA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
NEARLY ALL THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEREFORE SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS...EVEN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE LONGER TERM MODELS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY FAVORING A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HPC CONTINUITY (THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS)...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE US WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EVEN PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SOME MODERATION TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF
MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
OWING TO THE RELATIVELY COOL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE (PRACTICALLY
RIGHT OVERHEAD)...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER/EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE EXPECTED PATTERN HOLDS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COOL
POOL ALOFT IS LEADING TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LATE IN THE DAY...THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND
CONDITIONS THUS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS. THESE SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING...SOME ASSOCIATED MID CLOUD WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 020736
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 AM EDT MON OCT 2 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LET'S START WITH THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY
THAT WILL JUST BE TODAY. RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. 70 LOOKS GOOD FOR MANY
AREAS WEST AND WELL UP INTO THE 60S EAST. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ON THE
LATE MORNING ON.
TONIGHT POSES OUR FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM. CURRENTLY ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS. WE WILL BE RAISING THEM TO 30/40 PERCENT
FOR MOST AREAS. WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CROSS
ISOTHERMAL FLOW. WE WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. PROJECTED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SO WE WILL ALSO ADD THUNDER TO THE MIX.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD DAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE. THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT 70S. THE WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT WILL BE OVER BUT SHORT WAVES IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.
THE WRF AND GFS ARE IN MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS US BY MIDDAY. WE WILL KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT'S POPS IN THE 40 RANGE BUT CATEGORICAL LOOKS VERY GOOD
FOR WEDNESDAY. MUCH BETTER WEATHER IN STORE AFTER THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE LONGER TERM MODELS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY FAVORING A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HPC CONTINUITY (THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS)...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE US WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EVEN PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SOME MODERATION TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF
MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
OWING TO THE RELATIVELY COOL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE (PRACTICALLY
RIGHT OVERHEAD)...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER/EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE EXPECTED PATTERN HOLDS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF
06-06Z PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH

FXUS61 KBUF 021403
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EDT MON OCT 2 2006
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGINAS WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO OUR CWA TODAY. THE LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MCS WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK
STATE. THEREFORE...WILL INDICATE A TREND TOWARD MORE
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
AREA. ONLY THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL SEE SOME
INFLUENCE FROM THE DYING MCS. THE MORNING FOG EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT MON OCT 2 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. 70
LOOKS GOOD FOR MANY AREAS WEST AND WELL UP INTO THE 60S EAST.
TONIGHT POSES OUR FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM. CURRENTLY ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS. WE WILL BE RAISING THEM TO 30/40 PERCENT
FOR MOST AREAS. WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CROSS
ISOTHERMAL FLOW. WE WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. PROJECTED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SO WE WILL ALSO ADD THUNDER TO
THE MIX.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD DAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE. THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT 70S. THE WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT WILL BE OVER BUT SHORT WAVES IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.
THE WRF AND GFS ARE IN MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS US BY MIDDAY. WE WILL KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT'S POPS IN THE 40 RANGE BUT CATEGORICAL LOOKS VERY GOOD
FOR WEDNESDAY. MUCH BETTER WEATHER IN STORE AFTER THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE LONGER TERM MODELS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY FAVORING A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HPC CONTINUITY (THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS)...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL THAT SAID...THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE US WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EVEN PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SOME MODERATION TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF
MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
OWING TO THE RELATIVELY COOL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE (PRACTICALLY
RIGHT OVERHEAD)...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER/EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE EXPECTED PATTERN HOLDS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF
06-06Z PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 021925
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MI AND OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES ARE SEEING SOME AC AND CI FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT
ALL THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS PCPN
WILL SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TOWARD NEW YORK STATE. WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT SINCE ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP IN THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ON TUESDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT LOW TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA TO WARRANT
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
WESTER AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY GENERATE AN ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATH OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY STAY TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE UPSLOPE
NORTHERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL...RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTING A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
ANTICYCLONE RETREATS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THEN WE EXPECT SOME MODERATION TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE 06Z-14Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 030132
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006
.UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON SPREADING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PER CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST AS IT
APPEARS THAT THE INTENSITY AND INTEGRITY OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARD DRIER AIR. 850MB WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LOOK OK FOR LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
HIBBERT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MI AND OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES ARE SEEING SOME AC AND CI FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT
ALL THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS PCPN
WILL SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TOWARD NEW YORK STATE. WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT SINCE ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP IN THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ON TUESDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT LOW TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA TO WARRANT
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
WESTER AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY GENERATE AN ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATH OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY STAY TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE UPSLOPE
NORTHERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL...RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTING A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
ANTICYCLONE RETREATS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THEN WE EXPECT SOME MODERATION TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE 06Z-14Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 030716
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
316 AM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MILD DAY COMING UP TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST IN THE 12-14C
RANGE. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO 70 OR HIGHER. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT. NEW FWC
AND MET MOS GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE MAV MOS
STILL HAS CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WELL TO OUR WEST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH SOME NEW ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. THE MICHIGAN
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN AS WELL.
AFTER THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TODAY IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT. WE WILL LOWER POPS INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT LAKES LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS US LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE WRF WITH THIS RUN BUT THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH NOT TO
WORRY MUCH ABOUT TIMING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE
30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN ORDER BUT
TIMING LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
WE WILL SLOW THE TIMING IN THE GRIDS BY A FEW HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON
MAY BE THE BEST TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION A CERTAINTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY TO NEAR ZERO C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL
BE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS ENOUGH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO ARGUE MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS
THAT WAY. WE WILL JUST LOWER IT A BIT FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MENTION OF FROST
AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL...RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTING A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
ANTICYCLONE RETREATS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THEN WE EXPECT SOME MODERATION TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z)...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SFC WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 35-40 KT WINDS JUST ABV 1500 FT. OTHERWISE...
DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE COURSE OF THE TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH NEW YORK. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH...BUT ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
WIDELY SEPARATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE SOUTH OF BUF AND ROC.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH

FXUS61 KBUF 031116
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
716 AM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER THOUGH.
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 316 AM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MILD DAY COMING UP TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST IN THE 12-14C
RANGE. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO 70 OR HIGHER. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT. NEW FWC
AND MET MOS GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE MAV MOS
STILL HAS CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WELL TO OUR WEST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH SOME NEW ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. THE MICHIGAN
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN AS WELL.
AFTER THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TODAY IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT. WE WILL LOWER POPS INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT LAKES LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS US LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE WRF WITH THIS RUN BUT THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH NOT TO
WORRY MUCH ABOUT TIMING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE
30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN ORDER BUT
TIMING LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
WE WILL SLOW THE TIMING IN THE GRIDS BY A FEW HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON
MAY BE THE BEST TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION A CERTAINTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY TO NEAR ZERO C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL
BE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS ENOUGH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO ARGUE MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS
THAT WAY. WE WILL JUST LOWER IT A BIT FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MENTION OF FROST
AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL...RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTING A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
ANTICYCLONE RETREATS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THEN WE EXPECT SOME MODERATION TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION...
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z)...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SFC WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 35-40 KT WINDS JUST ABV 1500 FT. OTHERWISE...
DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE COURSE OF THE TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH NEW YORK. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH...BUT ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
WIDELY SEPARATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE SOUTH OF BUF AND ROC.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAGE
PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH

FXUS61 KBUF 031405
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 AM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR AREAS FROM
THE FINGER LAKES WEST AND KEEP LKLY POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE IN
THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A
2 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE ACTIVITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 716 AM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER THOUGH.
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MOST AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 316 AM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MILD DAY COMING UP TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST IN THE 12-14C
RANGE. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO 70 OR HIGHER. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT. NEW FWC
AND MET MOS GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE MAV MOS
STILL HAS CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WELL TO OUR WEST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH SOME NEW ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. THE MICHIGAN
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A SHORT WAVE APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN AS WELL.
AFTER THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TODAY IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT. WE WILL LOWER POPS INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT LAKES LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS US LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE WRF WITH THIS RUN BUT THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH NOT TO
WORRY MUCH ABOUT TIMING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE
30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN ORDER BUT
TIMING LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
WE WILL SLOW THE TIMING IN THE GRIDS BY A FEW HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON
MAY BE THE BEST TIMING FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION A CERTAINTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY TO NEAR ZERO C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL
BE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS ENOUGH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO ARGUE MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS
THAT WAY. WE WILL JUST LOWER IT A BIT FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MENTION OF FROST
AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL...RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTING A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
ANTICYCLONE RETREATS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THEN WE EXPECT SOME MODERATION TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION...
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z)...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SFC WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 35-40 KT WINDS JUST ABV 1500 FT. OTHERWISE...
DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE COURSE OF THE TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH NEW YORK. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH...BUT ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
WIDELY SEPARATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE SOUTH OF BUF AND ROC.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJP
AVIATION...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 031939
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER TIL AROUND 6 PM ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD.
PRECIP AHEAD OF LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL GRT LAKES SHOULD STAY TO
OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. WILL BRING IN SLGT CHC SHWR IN GRIDS TWD MRNG
ACROSS PORTION OF NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE ST LAW VALLEY. TEMPS
SHLD STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW
SPREAD NE.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT
LAKES LOW TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST, JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
GFS IS FASTER, TAKING THE LOW TO MAINE BY EVENING WHILE THE
NAM/WRF TAKES IT TO ARND THE VT/NH BORDER. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE 30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL.
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK GOOD BUT TIMING LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WILL GO WITH CHC SHWR OR TSTM
IN THE MORNING MAINLY WEST OF WATERTOWN, ROCHESTER, JAMESTOWN LINE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES, ACCOMPANIED BY THE
SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE FORCING/FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IN WARM
SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG FRONT.
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED 30 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW
FIELD...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND BUT
IN ANY EVENT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER, DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY LKLY POPS JUST OVER LEWIS COUNTY IN THE
EVENING WITH CHC SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW MOSTLY UPPER LVL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT COOL NE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD GENERATE SOME LOW CLDS AS WELL SO BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS
TIME WILL BE CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH PTLY CLDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDYA MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION DURING THE WEEKEND. ONLY QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A MODERATION TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOT PLUS WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD MIX DOWN BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY
AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 25 KNOTS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOT PLUS
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME OF THESE WINDS
COULD MIX DOWN BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 FROM 10 AM
         WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ043>045 FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8
         AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 040149
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006
.UPDATE...
FOG HAS FORMED IN OSWEGO COUNTY AND HERE AND THERE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.  WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT, WE HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF FOG TO ALL ZONES FOR TONIGHT...AND SIMPLIFIED CLOUD WORDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER UNTIL AROUND 6 PM ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OTHERWISE
SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR TO THE WEST WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREAD NORTHEAST.
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT
LAKES LOW TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST, JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE GFS
IS FASTER, TAKING THE LOW TO MAINE BY EVENING WHILE THE NAM/WRF
TAKES IT TO AROUND THE VT/NH BORDER. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE 30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL.
CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK GOOD BUT TIMING LOOKS MUCH BETTER FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING MAINLY WEST OF WATERTOWN, ROCHESTER,
JAMESTOWN LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES, ACCOMPANIED BY
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE FORCING/FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BROKEN
CONVECTIVE LINE IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG FRONT.  EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED 30 TO 50 KT MEAN
FLOW FIELD...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND BUT
IN ANY EVENT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER, DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS JUST OVER LEWIS COUNTY IN THE
EVENING WITH CHANCE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW MOSTLY UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT COOL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GENERATE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL SO BIGGEST
QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION DURING THE WEEKEND. ONLY QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A MODERATION TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOT PLUS WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD MIX DOWN BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY
AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.
MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 25 KNOTS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
MORNING/EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOT PLUS
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME OF THESE WINDS
COULD MIX DOWN BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 FROM 10 AM
         WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ043>045 FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8
         AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 040714
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
18Z. WE ARE BASING THIS ON THE GFS WHICH IS A LITTLE DEEPER...A
LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE WRF.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 70 IN MANY AREAS BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW MOVES
THROUGH. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK VERY GOOD. TIMING IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH THE WRF EARLIER THAN THE GFS. WE WILL BLEND
THE TIMING WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO THE BUFFALO...NIAGARA...
ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. THE WRF IS INDICATING CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250 MB JET AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...ADDING EXTRA LIFT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS SPELLS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
WEATHER SCENARIO.
THE BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT 2C. LEFTOVER RAIN IN THE EVENING SHOULD
END FAIRLY QUICKLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL
PROBABLY LEAVE US CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH GFS AND
WRF WILL HELP TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY.
SOME UPPER CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED ON PROJECTED SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WE WILL HAVE TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH FROST POTENTIAL
AGAIN.
A BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP STARTING FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD MEAN RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND. SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION
BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION DURING THE WEEKEND. ONLY QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A MODERATION TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR
FOR THE MOST PART. ANY FOG PROBLEMS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND/AFTER
SUNRISE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NEAR MONTREAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO MAINE BY THIS EVENING. IN THE PROCESS...IT
WILL SWING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 16Z. GIVEN THAT A DEEP LAYER
OF STRONG WINDS (40-50 KTS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...THEN
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BY LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH A
LITTLE IN STRENGTH BY THIS EVENING...THOUGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
ARE MIXED DOWN DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 FROM 10 AM
         WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ043>045 FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
         NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 041017
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
617 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006
.UPDATE...
HAD TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TIME THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HOURS EARLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
18Z. WE ARE BASING THIS ON THE GFS WHICH IS A LITTLE DEEPER...A
LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE WRF.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 70 IN MANY AREAS BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW MOVES
THROUGH. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK VERY GOOD. TIMING IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH THE WRF EARLIER THAN THE GFS. WE WILL BLEND
THE TIMING WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO THE BUFFALO...NIAGARA...
ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. THE WRF IS INDICATING CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250 MB JET AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...ADDING EXTRA LIFT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS SPELLS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
WEATHER SCENARIO.
THE BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT 2C. LEFTOVER RAIN IN THE EVENING SHOULD
END FAIRLY QUICKLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL
PROBABLY LEAVE US CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH GFS AND
WRF WILL HELP TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY.
SOME UPPER CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED ON PROJECTED SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WE WILL HAVE TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH FROST POTENTIAL
AGAIN.
A BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP STARTING FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD MEAN RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND. SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION DURING THE WEEKEND. ONLY QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A MODERATION TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION...
EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR
FOR THE MOST PART. ANY FOG PROBLEMS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND/AFTER
SUNRISE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NEAR MONTREAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO MAINE BY THIS EVENING. IN THE PROCESS...IT
WILL SWING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 16Z. GIVEN THAT A DEEP LAYER
OF STRONG WINDS (40-50 KTS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...THEN
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BY LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH A
LITTLE IN STRENGTH BY THIS EVENING...THOUGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
ARE MIXED DOWN DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 FROM 10 AM
         WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ043>045 FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
         NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAGE
PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION/MARINE...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 041424
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006
.UPDATE...
NORTHERN PORTION OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE OF PRECIP THAT
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO, BUT MORE, ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
TO OUR WEST, IS ON THE WAY. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA EXCEPT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES STILL IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SVR TSTMS. WILL LOWER
TSTMS THERE TO SCATTERED BUT HAVE THEM MORE NUMEROUS ELSEWHERE.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NEAR GEORGIAN BAY LATE THIS
MORNING TO NEAR MONTREAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO MAINE BY
THIS EVENING. IN THE PROCESS...IT WILL SWING A STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT A DEEP
LAYER OF STRONG WINDS (40-50 KTS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ALOFT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...THEN
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BY LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH A
LITTLE IN STRENGTH BY THIS EVENING...THOUGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
ARE MIXED DOWN DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NEAR
MONTREAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO MAINE BY THIS EVENING. IN
THE PROCESS...IT WILL SWING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE EARLY TODAY WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 25 KNOTS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 617 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006/
UPDATE...
HAD TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TIME THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HOURS EARLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 06Z IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
18Z. WE ARE BASING THIS ON THE GFS WHICH IS A LITTLE DEEPER...A
LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE WRF.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 70 IN MANY AREAS BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW MOVES
THROUGH. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK VERY GOOD. TIMING IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH THE WRF EARLIER THAN THE GFS. WE WILL BLEND
THE TIMING WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO THE BUFFALO...NIAGARA...
ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. THE WRF IS INDICATING CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO BE POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250 MB JET AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...ADDING EXTRA LIFT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS SPELLS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
WEATHER SCENARIO.
THE BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT 2C. LEFTOVER RAIN IN THE EVENING SHOULD
END FAIRLY QUICKLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL
PROBABLY LEAVE US CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH GFS AND
WRF WILL HELP TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY.
SOME UPPER CLOUDINESS IS INDICATED ON PROJECTED SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WE WILL HAVE TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH FROST POTENTIAL
AGAIN.
A BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP STARTING FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD MEAN RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND. SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION DURING THE WEEKEND. ONLY QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A MODERATION TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION...
EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR
FOR THE MOST PART. ANY FOG PROBLEMS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND/AFTER
SUNRISE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
NEAR GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NEAR MONTREAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO MAINE BY THIS EVENING. IN THE PROCESS...IT
WILL SWING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 16Z. GIVEN THAT A DEEP LAYER
OF STRONG WINDS (40-50 KTS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING
SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...THEN
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BY LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH A
LITTLE IN STRENGTH BY THIS EVENING...THOUGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
ARE MIXED DOWN DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 UNTIL 8 AM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ043>045 FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO
         NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 041951
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A THREAT OF A TSTM THIS EVENING TILL THE FRONT PASSES.
WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORCIAL POPS INTO THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH
AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL PROBABLY LEAVE US CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH GFS AND
WRF WILL HELP TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES DROPS SE
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PROFILES SHOW UPPER LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH CHILLY NE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE ONTARIO (850 TEMPS ZERO TO -2) WILL GENERATE SOME LOW CLDS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE EVEN THOUGH SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING IS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE WILL GO WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. TEMPS GET
COLD ENOUGH IN INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER FOR POSSIBLE FROST, ALSO
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE EVEN FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HOLD
MENTION OF FROST IN FORECAST FOR NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TILL
MORE CERTAIN ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FROST
THOUGH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW FORMING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND MAINLY CLR SKIES AT
NIGHT.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOWER LAKES REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SUGGESTION OF A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MOST OF
THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DRY (OR JUST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION). HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH A COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z. MVFR/IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER...UNDER A COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD MIX DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 UNTIL 6 PM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>045 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 050031
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
831 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006
.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WEST OF CAYUGA COUNTY. WINDS
ARE NORTH EVERYWHERE AFTER THE FRONT. UPDATE ISSUED TO END THE
RAIN WEST OF CAYUGA COUNTY AND CHANGE WINDS.F
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 351 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL PROBABLY LEAVE US CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH GFS AND
WRF WILL HELP TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES DROPS SE
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PROFILES SHOW UPPER LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH CHILLY NE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE ONTARIO (850 TEMPS ZERO TO -2) WILL GENERATE SOME LOW CLDS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE EVEN THOUGH SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING IS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE WILL GO WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. TEMPS GET
COLD ENOUGH IN INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER FOR POSSIBLE FROST, ALSO
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE EVEN FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HOLD
MENTION OF FROST IN FORECAST FOR NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TILL
MORE CERTAIN ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FROST
THOUGH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW FORMING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND MAINLY CLR SKIES AT
NIGHT.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOWER LAKES REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SUGGESTION OF A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MOST OF
THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DRY (OR JUST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION). HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH A COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z. MVFR/IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER...UNDER A COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD MIX DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 UNTIL 6 PM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>045 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 050630
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING EDGE DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS 5H TROF FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS ALSO. WILL
CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVERYWHERE...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES THAT AREAS OF FROST WILL
FORM. WILL BE ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY HOWEVER DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF UPDATED GUIDANCE DROPS TEMPS A BIT FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 30S.
THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES HOWEVER SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY AND CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL AGAIN MENTION SOME
FROST FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TOWARD NEAR
NORMAL READINGS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SUGGESTION OF A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MOST OF
THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DRY (OR JUST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION). HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH A COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS RISING TO
VFR LEVELS...THEN DISSIPATING WITH ITS PASSAGE. EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SAFELY BELOW
CRITERIA...OR GENERALLY AROUND NOONTIME TODAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085 FROM 2 AM
     FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 UNTIL NOON
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>045 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 051358
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
958 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
.UPDATE...
VISBLE SATELLITE SHOWS NICE LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ALONG SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO WAYNE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO COOL NE
FLOW OF THE LAKE. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT AMOUNT
OF CU FORMING ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER. PUT IN A BIT MORE
CLOUD IN GRIDS ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY BASED ON VSBL SATELLITE.
PTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR MOST OF AREA LOOKS GOOD TODAY. NO CHANGES
TO REST OF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
RESIDUAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SAFELY
BELOW CRITERIA...OR GENERALLY AROUND NOONTIME TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING EDGE DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS 5H TROF FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS ALSO. WILL
CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVERYWHERE...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES THAT AREAS OF FROST WILL
FORM. WILL BE ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY HOWEVER DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF UPDATED GUIDANCE DROPS TEMPS A BIT FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 30S.
THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES HOWEVER SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY AND CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL AGAIN MENTION SOME
FROST FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TOWARD NEAR
NORMAL READINGS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SUGGESTION OF A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MOST OF
THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
DRY (OR JUST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION). HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH A COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS RISING TO
VFR LEVELS...THEN DISSIPATING WITH ITS PASSAGE. EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SAFELY BELOW
CRITERIA...OR GENERALLY AROUND NOONTIME TODAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085 FROM 2 AM
     FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 UNTIL NOON
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>045 UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 051935
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ST LAW VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE MID LVL TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION LT
TNGT. MAINLY UPPER LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER LAKE
HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS MOVES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 06Z BUT BULK OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE FROM AROUND
THE THRUWAY NORTH WITH NOT MUCH HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. MOST HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO WITH
CHILLY NE TO N FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LAKE. IN ANY EVENT FOR
FROST POTENTIAL, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREAS AS INDICATED IN
EARLIER FORECAST (IE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER, SOUTHERN FINGER
LKS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS SHLD DROP TO MID 30S IN SOME
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FROST.
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ST LAW VALLEY. ANY LOW LK CLOUDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO SHLD MIX OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES PTLY/MSTLY
SUNNY DURG THE DAY AND THEN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SKIES MNLY CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING SOME AREAS OF FROST
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LAKES CONTINUES TO BRING NICE AUTUMN
WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THIS WILL BE
A RATHER TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THEN TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A VERY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND VORTEX DROPS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
SOME DETAILS...LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
OFF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AS EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE HAS GULF
MOISTURE COMPLETELY CUT OFF. PROBABLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AT BEST WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MREF
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CHANCE PROBABILITIES
DURING WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES A
LITTLE CLOSER AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEARLY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE TRANSITION TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH COULD GET TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085 FROM 2 AM
     FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 060203
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED FOR CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT IN TIME FOR FROST FORMATION LATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ST LAW VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE MID LVL TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION LT
TNGT. MAINLY UPPER LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER LAKE
HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS MOVES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 06Z BUT BULK OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE FROM AROUND
THE THRUWAY NORTH WITH NOT MUCH HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. MOST HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO WITH
CHILLY NE TO N FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LAKE. IN ANY EVENT FOR
FROST POTENTIAL, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SAME AREAS AS INDICATED IN
EARLIER FORECAST (IE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER, SOUTHERN FINGER
LKS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS SHLD DROP TO MID 30S IN SOME
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FROST.
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ST LAW VALLEY. ANY LOW LK CLOUDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO SHLD MIX OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES PTLY/MSTLY
SUNNY DURG THE DAY AND THEN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SKIES MNLY CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING SOME AREAS OF FROST
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LAKES CONTINUES TO BRING NICE AUTUMN
WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THIS WILL BE
A RATHER TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THEN TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A VERY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND VORTEX DROPS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
SOME DETAILS...LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
OFF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AS EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE HAS GULF
MOISTURE COMPLETELY CUT OFF. PROBABLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AT BEST WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MREF
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CHANCE PROBABILITIES
DURING WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES A
LITTLE CLOSER AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEARLY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE TRANSITION TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH COULD GET TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085 FROM 2 AM
     FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 060622
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO BREAK UP WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
THE HIGH DOMINATES TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT TO
SEE FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES WILL BE
THE EXCEPTION. WITH SUCH IDEAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (CATTARAGUS AND ALLEGANY
COUNTIES) AND THE NORTH COUNTRY (JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES)
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. WILL ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE FOUR ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES AND FROST ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY
FORECAST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
A MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S ON SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THIS WILL BE
A RATHER TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THEN TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A VERY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND VORTEX DROPS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
SOME DETAILS...LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
OFF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AS EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE HAS GULF
MOISTURE COMPLETELY CUT OFF. PROBABLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AT BEST WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MREF
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CHANCE PROBABILITIES
DURING WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES A
LITTLE CLOSER AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEARLY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE TRANSITION TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH COULD GET TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
DUE TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WE'LL SEE
OCCASIONAL 3500-4000 FT CIGS IN THE KBUF-KIAG-KROC CORRIDOR THROUGH
14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS/UNLIMITED CIGS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085 UNTIL 8 AM
     FRIDAY.
     FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ007-008-020-021 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8
     AM SATURDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085 FROM 2 AM
     SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 061409
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE STATOCU ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ONTARIO...MOST OF THE AREA IS SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING. AFTER THE LAKE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
BE THE RULE DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH SOME SC/CU IS LIKELY
DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 4K FEET AS SEEN ON THE 12Z
KBUF SOUNDING. THE CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE THAT
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXPECT AREA TEMPERATURES TO RANGE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
 &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO BREAK UP WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
THE HIGH DOMINATES TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT TO
SEE FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES WILL BE
THE EXCEPTION. WITH SUCH IDEAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (CATTARAGUS AND ALLEGANY
COUNTIES) AND THE NORTH COUNTRY (JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES)
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. WILL ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE FOUR ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES AND FROST ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY
FORECAST RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
A MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S ON SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THIS WILL BE
A RATHER TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THEN TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A VERY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND VORTEX DROPS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
SOME DETAILS...LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
OFF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AS EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE HAS GULF
MOISTURE COMPLETELY CUT OFF. PROBABLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES AT BEST WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MREF
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CHANCE PROBABILITIES
DURING WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES A
LITTLE CLOSER AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEARLY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE TRANSITION TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH COULD GET TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
DUE TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WE'LL SEE
OCCASIONAL 3500-4000 FT CIGS IN THE KBUF-KIAG-KROC CORRIDOR THROUGH
14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS/UNLIMITED CIGS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ007-008-020-021 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8
     AM SATURDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085 FROM 2 AM
     SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 061842
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
242 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNING'S LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU ARE STILL
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. EXPECT MOST OF THE SC/CU TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY
SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES AS THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN
HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT IS
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST WHICH
WILL PREVENT THE INSULATING AFFECTS OF ANY LAKE CLOUDS. THUS...THE
FROST MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. THUS...A
FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE
WINDS SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REBOUND TO ABOUT 14C SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBLITY OF SCATTERED
FROST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS TRACKS THE FRONT TO THE EAST A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE WRF...BUT THE IMPACT WILL BE THE SAME SINCE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THIS SYSTEM. MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THEN MOVES
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK
AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LATER THU/THU NIGHT NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WITH 850
TEMPS DROPPING TO -7 TO -9 ACROSS THE AREA. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP SE OF THE LAKES WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 519 BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP LTR THU NGT AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOLDING OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHANCE POPS OVER
THE WHOLE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME LINGERING CU THIS AFTERNOON IN NE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAINLY
BETWEEN BUF-IAG-ROC CORRIDOR. SHLD BE MAINLY SCT IN NATURE AROUND 35
HND FT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CIG FOR A TIME AT IAG TILL LTR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME CLR TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ007-008-020-021 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8
     AM SATURDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085 FROM 2 AM
     SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP

FXUS61 KBUF 070130
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006
.UPDATE...
CONTINUITY IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG AND
EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CLEAR SKY...WHICH IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BEAUTIFUL HARVEST MOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...
WHICH SHOULD DETER ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM BEING A CONCERN.
TEMPS LOOK IN LINE WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.
RSH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 242 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNING'S LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU ARE STILL
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. EXPECT MOST OF THE SC/CU TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY
SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES AS THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN
HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT IS
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST WHICH
WILL PREVENT THE INSULATING AFFECTS OF ANY LAKE CLOUDS. THUS...THE
FROST MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. THUS...A
FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE
WINDS SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REBOUND TO ABOUT 14C SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBLITY OF SCATTERED
FROST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS TRACKS THE FRONT TO THE EAST A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE WRF...BUT THE IMPACT WILL BE THE SAME SINCE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THIS SYSTEM. MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THEN MOVES
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK
AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LATER THU/THU NIGHT NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WITH 850
TEMPS DROPPING TO -7 TO -9 ACROSS THE AREA. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP SE OF THE LAKES WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 519 BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP LTR THU NGT AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOLDING OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHANCE POPS OVER
THE WHOLE AREA.
AVIATION...
SOME LINGERING CU THIS AFTERNOON IN NE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAINLY
BETWEEN BUF-IAG-ROC CORRIDOR. SHLD BE MAINLY SCT IN NATURE AROUND 35
HND FT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CIG FOR A TIME AT IAG TILL LTR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME CLR TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ007-008-020-021 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8
     AM SATURDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085 FROM 2 AM
     SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RSH
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP

FXUS61 KBUF 070718
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 AM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE SOUTH. 925
MB TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL REACH THE +9 TO +11C RANGE TODAY AND
THE +12 TO +16C RANGE ON SUNDAY...AND GIVEN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAXES IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY AND
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. THESE READINGS ARE A LITTLE BIT
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...MAINLY BECAUSE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING.
WHILE TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WARMER
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...IT COULD STILL GET COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. BECAUSE THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING/ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS MORNING...WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AND WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE
ZONES INSTEAD.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF ANY SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS FOR FORMING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST...WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
OCCURRING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST...THOUGH
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT IS
PRETTY WEAK. FOR NOW...WILL JUST MAKE MAX TEMPS A FEW HOURS EARLIER
IN THE FORECAST AND LEAVE IT AT THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THEN MOVES
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK
AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LATER THU/THU NIGHT NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WITH 850
TEMPS DROPPING TO -7 TO -9 ACROSS THE AREA. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP SE OF THE LAKES WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 519 BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP LTR THU NGT AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOLDING OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHANCE POPS OVER
THE WHOLE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ007-008-020-021 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-019-085 UNTIL 8 AM
     SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...LEVAN

FXUS61 KBUF 071447
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 AM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006
.UPDATE...
GREAT WEATHER. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY THE EARLY MORNING
FROST WORDING HAD TO BE REMOVED. ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE LESS SKY COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE SOUTH. 925
MB TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL REACH THE +9 TO +11C RANGE TODAY AND
THE +12 TO +16C RANGE ON SUNDAY...AND GIVEN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAXES IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY AND
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. THESE READINGS ARE A LITTLE BIT
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...MAINLY BECAUSE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING.
WHILE TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WARMER
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE NIGHT...IT COULD STILL GET COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. BECAUSE THESE AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING/ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS MORNING...WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AND WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE
ZONES INSTEAD.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF ANY SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS FOR FORMING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST...WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
OCCURRING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST...THOUGH
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THAT THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT IS
PRETTY WEAK. FOR NOW...WILL JUST MAKE MAX TEMPS A FEW HOURS EARLIER
IN THE FORECAST AND LEAVE IT AT THAT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THEN MOVES
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK
AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LATER THU/THU NIGHT NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT WITH 850
TEMPS DROPPING TO -7 TO -9 ACROSS THE AREA. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP SE OF THE LAKES WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 519 BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP LTR THU NGT AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOLDING OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHANCE POPS OVER
THE WHOLE AREA.
AVIATION...
CLR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAGE
PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...LEVAN

FXUS61 KBUF 071859
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH NEEDED DRY STRETCH CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY THEN ANOTHER
HIGH TAKING CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY THEN HUGE CHANGES
ARE PROJECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SEE THE DETAILS BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS BLOCKED
AS A CLOSED LOW CHURNS AWAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO KEEP A STRONG HOLD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AGAIN BUT LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES. ANY
SCATTERED FROST THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE IN AREAS THAT HAD A
KILLING FROST LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND PERSISTING.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 70 OR HIGHER ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE AIR ALONG THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED  WITH
LITTLE LIFT INDICATED. WE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MAINE WITH A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING WNY FROM THE SW. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
AT NIGHT JUST TO SW NEW YORK. ON WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO MOVING NNE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
DECENT LIFT SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES WITH
CHC POPS JUST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GRT LAKES. THERE IS
STILL DECENT LIFT ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS.
INTERESTING DISCUSSION FROM HPC THIS MORNING ABOUT UPCOMING SPELL OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST ROTATING EWD THRU THE ERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEY SAY "ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF
ARE FORECASTING A HISTORIC EVENT AT H500 WITH THE GFS 6-7 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF CLOSER TO 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL..STILL WITHIN EXTREME/HISTORIC
VALUES ON A 57 YEAR BASE."
ON THURSDAY THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW
MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY ALL AREAS. MUCH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT LATER THU AND THU NGT. STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THU NGT. AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE OF LAKE ERIE AND WITH VORT AXIS
ROTATING ARND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK I LIKE THE
HIGH CHC POPS THAT HPC HAS WITH LKLY POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. HAVE EVEN ADDED A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (APPROX 1300 FT) LTR
THU NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED FURTHER ON LATER MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES BUT THE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHC POPS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS. LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES NE OF THE LAKES
WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO
SOUTHERLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHC POPS ALTHOUGH IT SHLD BE A LOWER THREAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAGE
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP

FXUS61 KBUF 071859
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH NEEDED DRY STRETCH CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY THEN ANOTHER
HIGH TAKING CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY THEN HUGE CHANGES
ARE PROJECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SEE THE DETAILS BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS BLOCKED
AS A CLOSED LOW CHURNS AWAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO KEEP A STRONG HOLD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AGAIN BUT LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES. ANY
SCATTERED FROST THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE IN AREAS THAT HAD A
KILLING FROST LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND PERSISTING.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 70 OR HIGHER ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE AIR ALONG THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED  WITH
LITTLE LIFT INDICATED. WE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MAINE WITH A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING WNY FROM THE SW. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD. WILL B
!!  PPP Failed to connect  !!
RING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
AT NIGHT JUST TO SW NEW YORK. ON WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO MOVING NNE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
DECENT LIFT SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES WITH
CHC POPS JUST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GRT LAKES. THERE IS
STILL DECENT LIFT ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS.
INTERESTING DISCUSSION FROM HPC THIS MORNING ABOUT UPCOMING SPELL OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST ROTATING EWD THRU THE ERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEY SAY "ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF
ARE FORECASTING A HISTORIC EVENT AT H500 WITH THE GFS 6-7 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF CLOSER TO 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL..STILL WITHIN EXTREME/HISTORIC
VALUES ON A 57 YEAR BASE."
ON THURSDAY THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW
MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY ALL AREAS. MUCH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT LATER THU AND THU NGT. STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THU NGT. AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE OF LAKE ERIE AND WITH VORT AXIS
ROTATING ARND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK I LIKE THE
HIGH CHC POPS THAT HPC HAS WITH LKLY POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. HAVE EVEN ADDED A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (APPROX 1300 FT) LTR
THU NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED FURTHER ON LATER MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES BUT THE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHC POPS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS. LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES NE OF THE LAKES
WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO
SOUTHERLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHC POPS ALTHOUGH IT SHLD BE A LOWER THREAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAGE
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP

FXUS61 KBUF 080708
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE US WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND PLEASANT
EARLY FALL DAY TODAY. THE LONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT (SO TO SPEAK)
IS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PA WHICH HAS BEEN OOZING EVER SO SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THE PAST 3-4 HOURS...AND IS NOW ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST
THAT THIS DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA TODAY...BUT WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY ERODE/BECOME SCT-BKN IN NATURE ONCE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING
BEGINS. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS VERY PLAUSIBLE...AND PRETTY MUCH CONCUR.
WILL THUS COVER THIS WITH "EARLY AM CLOUDS/THEN PARTLY SUNNY"
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY
SUNNY/SUNNY EVERYWHERE ELSE.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES TODAY...A MODERATING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP BOOST AREA
TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO THE +11/+12C RANGE. THESE READINGS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
READINGS A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT WILL BE AN ABSOLUTELY
GORGEOUS DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY...EVENTUALLY SWINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
WITHOUT ANY UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT...SO A DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS
GOOD. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND ONLY WEAK
COOL ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...FORECAST MAXES IN THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 RANGE AGAIN LOOK VERY REASONABLE...AND WILL NOT CHANGE
THESE MUCH FROM CONTINUITY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST TO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOULD RIDGE INTO OUR AREA ENOUGH TO PROVIDE US WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM
MONDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND MONDAY
(M50S-L60S)...BUT STILL PRETTY COMFORTABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES WNY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST JUST BROUGHT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
GFS WILL SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AS WELL AS BUMP UP POPS
A LITTLE. THESE WILL STILL BE IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT THE UPDATED
GRIDS WILL MESH A BIT BETTER WITH THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD...AS WELL AS
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ALSO MOVING NNE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS
EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES WITH CHC POPS JUST OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GRT LAKES. THERE IS
STILL DECENT LIFT ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS.
INTERESTING DISCUSSION FROM HPC THIS MORNING ABOUT UPCOMING SPELL OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST ROTATING EWD THRU THE ERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEY SAY "ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF
ARE FORECASTING A HISTORIC EVENT AT H500 WITH THE GFS 6-7 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF CLOSER TO 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL..STILL WITHIN EXTREME/HISTORIC
VALUES ON A 57 YEAR BASE."
ON THURSDAY THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW
MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY ALL AREAS. MUCH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT LATER THU AND THU NGT. STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THU NGT. AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE OF LAKE ERIE AND WITH VORT AXIS
ROTATING ARND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK I LIKE THE
HIGH CHC POPS THAT HPC HAS WITH LKLY POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. HAVE EVEN ADDED A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (APPROX 1300 FT) LTR
THU NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED FURTHER ON LATER MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES BUT THE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHC POPS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS. LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES NE OF THE LAKES
WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO
SOUTHERLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDYA
NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHC POPS ALTHOUGH IT SHLD BE A LOWER THREAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...LEVAN

FXUS61 KBUF 081312
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE AT THIS TIME. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE FOR LESS
SKY COVER FOR SOUTHERN TIER. LOW CLOUDS FROM VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED AND IT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY THERE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE US WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND PLEASANT
EARLY FALL DAY TODAY. THE LONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT (SO TO SPEAK)
IS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PA WHICH HAS BEEN OOZING EVER SO SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THE PAST 3-4 HOURS...AND IS NOW ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST
THAT THIS DECK WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA TODAY...BUT WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY ERODE/BECOME SCT-BKN IN NATURE ONCE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING
BEGINS. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS VERY PLAUSIBLE...AND PRETTY MUCH CONCUR.
WILL THUS COVER THIS WITH "EARLY AM CLOUDS/THEN PARTLY SUNNY"
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY
SUNNY/SUNNY EVERYWHERE ELSE.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES TODAY...A MODERATING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP BOOST AREA
TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO THE +11/+12C RANGE. THESE READINGS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
READINGS A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT WILL BE AN ABSOLUTELY
GORGEOUS DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY...EVENTUALLY SWINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
WITHOUT ANY UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT...SO A DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS
GOOD. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND ONLY WEAK
COOL ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...FORECAST MAXES IN THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 RANGE AGAIN LOOK VERY REASONABLE...AND WILL NOT CHANGE
THESE MUCH FROM CONTINUITY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST TO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOULD RIDGE INTO OUR AREA ENOUGH TO PROVIDE US WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM
MONDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND MONDAY
(M50S-L60S)...BUT STILL PRETTY COMFORTABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES WNY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST JUST BROUGHT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST
GFS WILL SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AS WELL AS BUMP UP POPS
A LITTLE. THESE WILL STILL BE IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT THE UPDATED
GRIDS WILL MESH A BIT BETTER WITH THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD...AS WELL AS
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ALSO MOVING NNE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS
EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES WITH CHC POPS JUST OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GRT LAKES. THERE IS
STILL DECENT LIFT ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS.
INTERESTING DISCUSSION FROM HPC THIS MORNING ABOUT UPCOMING SPELL OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST ROTATING EWD THRU THE ERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEY SAY "ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF
ARE FORECASTING A HISTORIC EVENT AT H500 WITH THE GFS 6-7 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF CLOSER TO 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL..STILL WITHIN EXTREME/HISTORIC
VALUES ON A 57 YEAR BASE."
ON THURSDAY THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW
MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY ALL AREAS. MUCH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT LATER THU AND THU NGT. STILL SOME TIMING
ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THU NGT. AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE OF LAKE ERIE AND WITH VORT AXIS
ROTATING ARND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK I LIKE THE
HIGH CHC POPS THAT HPC HAS WITH LKLY POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. HAVE EVEN ADDED A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (APPROX 1300 FT) LTR
THU NGT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED FURTHER ON LATER MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES BUT THE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHC POPS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS. LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES NE OF THE LAKES
WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO
SOUTHERLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDYA
NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING CHC POPS ALTHOUGH IT SHLD BE A LOWER THREAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
AVIATION...
CLR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAGE
PREVIOUS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JML

FXUS61 KBUF 081902
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
302 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR MUCH NEEDED DRY SPELL AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE NOTICED AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS
OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF STATE BUT NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED. THE BROKEN SKY COVER GUIDANCE FROM
THE MET MOS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ON THE WRF LOOKS
OVERDONE FOR LATE TODAY. WE WILL STICK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS JAMES BAY EARLY TONIGHT...A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED HOWEVER SO
NO PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY KNOCK ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREES OFF OF TODAY'S
HIGHS. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS STILL EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDINESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD AN EASTERLY
FLOW OF COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE. WE
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THESE TWO PERIODS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
THE WRF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT IN EITHER CASE WE EXPECT WARM FRONTAL LIFT AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH. WE WILL GO
MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS WHICH HOLDS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MUCH FURTHER
WEST THAN THE WRF. THE WRF HAS THE CENTER OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
BIG CHANGES STILL SCHEDULED FOR LATE WEEK. SEE DETAILS BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GRT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHED OF FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING WITH LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SFC RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO WESTERN FINGER LKS BY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FRNT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -8 BY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE CHC THUNDER IN THE
MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES THROUGH WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, MIX ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BRINGS BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE
OF LK ERIE INTO FRIDAY. AIR STILL COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE ABOVE STATED AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP CONTINUING TO LEE OF GRT LAKES AND COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF
MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT INTO EARLY PART OF SAT OUTSIDE OF AREAS VCNTY
OF THE LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 30-35 HND FT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE ROCHESTER AREA OTHERWISE SKIES SHLD BE CLR
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOME
FOG COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM AROUND 09Z-12Z. ONLY SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP

FXUS61 KBUF 090152
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006
.UPDATE...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...CLEAR MOONLIT SKIES
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN RECENT NIGHTS THOUGH WITH NMO FROST PROBLEMS
ANTICIPATED.
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND HAS DRIFTED TO OUR SOUTH...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL
BE HIGHER.
ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR COLUMBUS DAY...THEN AS WE
PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY.
RSH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR MUCH NEEDED DRY SPELL AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE NOTICED AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS
OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF STATE BUT NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED. THE BROKEN SKY COVER GUIDANCE FROM
THE MET MOS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ON THE WRF LOOKS
OVERDONE FOR LATE TODAY. WE WILL STICK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS JAMES BAY EARLY TONIGHT...A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED HOWEVER SO
NO PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY KNOCK ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREES OFF OF TODAY'S
HIGHS. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS STILL EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDINESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD AN EASTERLY
FLOW OF COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE. WE
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THESE TWO PERIODS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
THE WRF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT IN EITHER CASE WE EXPECT WARM FRONTAL LIFT AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH. WE WILL GO
MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS WHICH HOLDS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MUCH FURTHER
WEST THAN THE WRF. THE WRF HAS THE CENTER OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
BIG CHANGES STILL SCHEDULED FOR LATE WEEK. SEE DETAILS BELOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GRT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHED OF FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING WITH LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SFC RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO WESTERN FINGER LKS BY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FRNT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -8 BY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE CHC THUNDER IN THE
MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES THROUGH WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, MIX ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BRINGS BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE
OF LK ERIE INTO FRIDAY. AIR STILL COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE ABOVE STATED AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP CONTINUING TO LEE OF GRT LAKES AND COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF
MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT INTO EARLY PART OF SAT OUTSIDE OF AREAS VCNTY
OF THE LAKES.
AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 30-35 HND FT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE ROCHESTER AREA OTHERWISE SKIES SHLD BE CLR
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOME
FOG COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM AROUND 09Z-12Z. ONLY SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RSH
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP

FXUS61 KBUF 090704
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
304 AM EDT MON OCT 9 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE UPPER LOWS OF SIGNIFICANCE
OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE FIRST OF THESE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY...WHILE THE OTHER TWO ARE NEARLY STATIONARY
CUTOFFS...WITH ONE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN
BETWEEN ALL OF THIS IS A LARGE...WARM UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH WESTERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY IN THE PLEASANT WEATHER REGIME FOUND UNDER THE
RIDGE.
TODAY...THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO LABRADOR...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE SAME
PATH. IN THE PROCESS...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR
MOISTURE AND LACKING UPPER SUPPORT...FACTORS THAT WILL PRECLUDE THE
FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS TODAY. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH SKIES BECOMING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK TODAY...WITH 850 MB/
925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +11 TO +12C AND +13.5 TO +16.5C
RANGES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...
OR IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S REGIONWIDE. COMBINED WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY TO END THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE WEAK COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE US WITH A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL /IN THE 40S MON NIGHT AND U50S-L60S TUESDAY/ FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US LOW
AND RIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A CORRESPONDING SURGE IN
MOISTURE WORKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT...BUT I
EXPECT WE'LL STILL MANAGE ENOUGH SUN TO KEEP THE PARTLY SUNNY
FORECAST INTACT FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS EAST INTO THE REGION...AND JOINS FORCES WITH
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW...ALL AGREE THAT WE'LL HAVE A STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS CONTINUITY AND THE SLOWER...MORE CONSISTENT GFS THIS
PERIOD...INDICATING CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GRT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING WITH LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SFC RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO WESTERN FINGER LKS BY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FRNT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -8 BY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE CHC THUNDER IN THE
MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES THROUGH WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, MIX ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BRINGS BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE
OF LK ERIE INTO FRIDAY. AIR STILL COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE ABOVE STATED AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP CONTINUING TO LEE OF GRT LAKES AND COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF
MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT INTO EARLY PART OF SAT OUTSIDE OF AREAS VCNTY
OF THE LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME
FOG COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM 08Z-12Z. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN MID CLDS ARND 5KFT BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
WIND SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BEGINNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEY WILL VEER TO
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTN AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...LEVAN

FXUS61 KBUF 091434
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 9 2006
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEED TO GOING FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE LOOP LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN
MID CLDS ARND 5KFT BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
WIND SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BEGINNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEY WILL VEER TO
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTN AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 AM EDT MON OCT 9 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE UPPER LOWS OF SIGNIFICANCE
OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE FIRST OF THESE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY...WHILE THE OTHER TWO ARE NEARLY STATIONARY
CUTOFFS...WITH ONE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...AND THE
OTHER OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN
BETWEEN ALL OF THIS IS A LARGE...WARM UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH WESTERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY IN THE PLEASANT WEATHER REGIME FOUND UNDER THE
RIDGE.
TODAY...THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO LABRADOR...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE SAME
PATH. IN THE PROCESS...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE STARVED FOR
MOISTURE AND LACKING UPPER SUPPORT...FACTORS THAT WILL PRECLUDE THE
FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS TODAY. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH SKIES BECOMING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK TODAY...WITH 850 MB/
925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +11 TO +12C AND +13.5 TO +16.5C
RANGES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...
OR IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S REGIONWIDE. COMBINED WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY TO END THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE WEAK COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE US WITH A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL /IN THE 40S MON NIGHT AND U50S-L60S TUESDAY/ FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US LOW
AND RIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A CORRESPONDING SURGE IN
MOISTURE WORKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT...BUT I
EXPECT WE'LL STILL MANAGE ENOUGH SUN TO KEEP THE PARTLY SUNNY
FORECAST INTACT FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS EAST INTO THE REGION...AND JOINS FORCES WITH
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WHILE
THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW...ALL AGREE THAT WE'LL HAVE A STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS CONTINUITY AND THE SLOWER...MORE CONSISTENT GFS THIS
PERIOD...INDICATING CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GRT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD LIFT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING WITH LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SFC RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO WESTERN FINGER LKS BY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FRNT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -8 BY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE LKLY POPS FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE CHC THUNDER IN THE
MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES THROUGH WITH AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, MIX ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BRINGS BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NE
OF LK ERIE INTO FRIDAY. AIR STILL COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE ABOVE STATED AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP CONTINUING TO LEE OF GRT LAKES AND COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF
MIXED PRECIP AT NIGHT INTO EARLY PART OF SAT OUTSIDE OF AREAS VCNTY
OF THE LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 100146
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006
.UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY LEFT INTACT THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE RIBBON
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE
WATERS IS HAVING TROUBLE MOVING SOUTH AS FORECAST. WILL CUT BACK
ON THE CLOUD A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...AND GIVEN TREND OF
SFC T/TD...WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
AN EQUIPMENT NOTE...DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE UPGRADE/MODERNIZATION OF
THE UPPER AIR EQUIPMENT IN BUFFALO...THERE WILL BE NO SCHEDULED
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. SOUNDINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT MONDAY THE 16TH.
RSH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SUPER EARLY FALL DAY FOR THIS COLUMBUS DAY WITH MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S...SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG IT TUESDAY...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. BOTH GFS AND WRF
SPITTING OUT SOME MINOR QPF ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AND RIDES ALONG STALLED OUT
FRONT. CONTINUITY AS THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE FOLLOWING CLOSER
THE SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A TOUGH CALL FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH BOTH THE WRF
AND GFS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY...BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY.
BOTH WRF AND GFS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
SHARP DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FONT THURSDAY BEFORE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-4C.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF (THE WRF FASTER) BUT BOTH STILL AGREE THAT A
DEEPLY CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO OUR REGION WITH SOME SERIOUS LAKE
EFFECT(RAIN/SNOW)IMPLICATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT IS PRETTY EARLY FOR SNOW BUT THE MREF ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
AND 850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS
COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WET
SNOW WOULD MIX IN WITH RAIN BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND MAYBE ALL WET SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD
FRIDAY BUT WARM ENOUGH NOT TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW STICKING. FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD BUT VERY LITTLE WARMING. LAKE EFFECT MAY STILL BE
A CONSIDERATION RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FURTHER NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION...
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT. CIGS FOR THE MOST
PART HOWEVER WILL REMAIN VFR. LIGHT FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER
BEFORE MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE

FXUS61 KBUF 100146
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006
.UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY LEFT INTACT THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE RIBBON
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE
WATERS IS HAVING TROUBLE MOVING SOUTH AS FORECAST. WILL CUT BACK
ON THE CLOUD A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...AND GIVEN TREND OF
SFC T/TD...WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
AN EQUIPMENT NOTE...DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE UPGRADE/MODERNIZATION OF
THE UPPER AIR EQUIPMENT IN BUFFALO...THERE WILL BE NO SCHEDULED
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. SOUNDINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT MONDAY THE 16TH.
RSH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SUPER EARLY FALL DAY FOR THIS COLUMBUS DAY WITH MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S...SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG IT TUESDAY...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. BOTH GFS AND WRF
SPITTING OUT SOME MINOR QPF ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST AND RIDES ALONG STALLED OUT
FRONT. CONTINUITY AS THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE FOLLOWING CLOSER
THE SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A TOUGH CALL FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH BOTH THE WRF
AND GFS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY...BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY.
BOTH WRF AND GFS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
SHARP DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FONT THURSDAY BEFORE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-4C.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF (THE WRF FASTER) BUT BOTH STILL AGREE THAT A
DEEPLY CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO OUR REGION WITH SOME SERIOUS LAKE
EFFECT(RAIN/SNOW)IMPLICATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT IS PRETTY EARLY FOR SNOW BUT THE MREF ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
AND 850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS
COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WET
SNOW WOULD MIX IN WITH RAIN BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND MAYBE ALL WET SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD
FRIDAY BUT WARM ENOUGH NOT TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW STICKING. FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD BUT VERY LITTLE WARMING. LAKE EFFECT MAY STILL BE
A CONSIDERATION RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FURTHER NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION...
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT. CIGS FOR THE MOST
PART HOWEVER WILL REMAIN VFR. LIGHT FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER
BEFORE MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE

FXUS61 KBUF 100635
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
235 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND ALLOW THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF TODAY. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE STALLED OUT FRONT. WILL
BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA WILL ADD UP TO MAX TEMPS TODAY ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE YESTERDAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED CONTINUITY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE GFS AND WRF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEY ARE
QUITE SIMILAR ON TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE FRONT.
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETTING FROM ABOUT
+10C WEDNESDAY EVENING TO -4C AT AROUND KBUF BY THURSDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN DAYTIME TEMPS ON THURSDAY A GOOD 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORM...AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAYS GREAT DAY.
THIS JUST SETS THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF (THE WRF FASTER) BUT BOTH STILL AGREE THAT A
DEEPLY CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO OUR REGION WITH SOME SERIOUS LAKE
EFFECT(RAIN/SNOW)IMPLICATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT IS PRETTY EARLY FOR SNOW BUT THE MREF ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
AND 850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS
COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WET
SNOW WOULD MIX IN WITH RAIN BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND MAYBE ALL WET SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD
FRIDAY BUT WARM ENOUGH NOT TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW STICKING. FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD BUT VERY LITTLE WARMING. LAKE EFFECT MAY STILL BE
A CONSIDERATION RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FURTHER NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINISH SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...THEN WILL VEER FIRST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO AT
LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUCH WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF OUR NEARSHORE WATERS SOMETIME LATER TODAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 100635
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
235 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND ALLOW THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF TODAY. UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE STALLED OUT FRONT. WILL
BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA WILL ADD UP TO MAX TEMPS TODAY ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE YESTERDAY.
HAVE FOLLOWED CONTINUITY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE GFS AND WRF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEY ARE
QUITE SIMILAR ON TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE FRONT.
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETTING FROM ABOUT
+10C WEDNESDAY EVENING TO -4C AT AROUND KBUF BY THURSDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN DAYTIME TEMPS ON THURSDAY A GOOD 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORM...AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAYS GREAT DAY.
THIS JUST SETS THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF (THE WRF FASTER) BUT BOTH STILL AGREE THAT A
DEEPLY CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO OUR REGION WITH SOME SERIOUS LAKE
EFFECT(RAIN/SNOW)IMPLICATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT IS PRETTY EARLY FOR SNOW BUT THE MREF ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
AND 850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS
COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WET
SNOW WOULD MIX IN WITH RAIN BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND MAYBE ALL WET SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD
FRIDAY BUT WARM ENOUGH NOT TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW STICKING. FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD BUT VERY LITTLE WARMING. LAKE EFFECT MAY STILL BE
A CONSIDERATION RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FURTHER NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINISH SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...THEN WILL VEER FIRST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO AT
LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUCH WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF OUR NEARSHORE WATERS SOMETIME LATER TODAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

FXUS61 KBUF 101401
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
.UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IS
PRODUCING A FEW ECHOES NORTH OF THE LAKE...BUT MOST OF THE LIGHT
PCPN SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WX OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW SOME CLEARING OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THE UPSTREAM CI AND
AC WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO RAISE TODAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GENESEE VALLEY WHERE LIMITED MORNING
SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MORE QUICKLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE FOLLOWED CONTINUITY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF STRONG
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE GFS
AND WRF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEY ARE QUITE SIMILAR ON TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE
AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
TSTMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETTING FROM ABOUT
+10C WEDNESDAY EVENING TO -4C AT AROUND KBUF BY THURSDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN DAYTIME TEMPS ON THURSDAY A GOOD 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORM...AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAYS GREAT DAY.
THIS JUST SETS THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF (THE WRF FASTER) BUT BOTH STILL AGREE THAT A
DEEPLY CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO OUR REGION WITH SOME SERIOUS LAKE
EFFECT(RAIN/SNOW)IMPLICATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT IS PRETTY EARLY FOR SNOW BUT THE MREF ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
AND 850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS
COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WET
SNOW WOULD MIX IN WITH RAIN BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND MAYBE ALL WET SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD
FRIDAY BUT WARM ENOUGH NOT TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW STICKING. FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD BUT VERY LITTLE WARMING. LAKE EFFECT MAY STILL BE
A CONSIDERATION RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FURTHER NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINISH SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...THEN WILL VEER FIRST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO AT
LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUCH WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF OUR NEARSHORE WATERS SOMETIME LATER TODAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 101948
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SHARP CHANGE TO MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STEADIER SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG THETA E
RIDGE SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND HIGH
STRENGTHENS.
THE GFS STILL TRACKS THE FRONT TO THE EAST A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE
WRF...BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE THE SAME AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT STEADY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO ABOUT -7C. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPLY CLOSED
SYSTEM ROTATES OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL WITHDRAW
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARMUP THOUGH WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAD STALLED OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED
MOSTLY JUST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WE EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WARM
ADVECTION WILL THICKEN THE MID CLOUD LAYER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
         THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE

FXUS61 KBUF 101948
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SHARP CHANGE TO MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STEADIER SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG THETA E
RIDGE SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND HIGH
STRENGTHENS.
THE GFS STILL TRACKS THE FRONT TO THE EAST A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE
WRF...BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE THE SAME AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT STEADY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO ABOUT -7C. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPLY CLOSED
SYSTEM ROTATES OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL WITHDRAW
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARMUP THOUGH WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAD STALLED OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED
MOSTLY JUST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WE EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WARM
ADVECTION WILL THICKEN THE MID CLOUD LAYER. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
         THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE

FXUS61 KBUF 110153
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
.UPDATE...
SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF FINE AUTUMN WX COMING TO A CLOSE THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO RELUCTANTLY OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION. RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER WRN OHIO AND
ERN MICH AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS PROCESS TO SPEED UP AND
BLOSSOM EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
NUDGE POPS DOWN A BIT AND DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS A FEW HOURS...BUT
STILL WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS TWD MORNING WEST OF THE GENESEE AND
CHC TO WAYNE/OSWEGO. WILL ALSO TONE DOWN POPS WED MORNING E OF LK
ONTARIO. IT DOES APPEAR FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL JUST CLIP OUR
WRN COUNTES WED AM WITH ONLY MINOR QPF ACROSS FINGER LAKES THRU
MUCH OF WED...WE MAY ALL DRY OUT A BIT WED AFTERNOON IN WARM
SECTOR.
VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR LATER IN WEEK WITH DRAMATIC
COLD SURGE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURS THRU SAT. PRECISE
WIND FLOW STILL IN QUESTION BUT INTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOUT AS
EXTREME AS EVER (850 MB-SFC DELTA T'S OF 23-24C!). -7C (AT 850 MB)
IS USUALLY THE BREAK POINT BTWN RAIN AND SNOW FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE
EVENTS...BUT THIS IS VERY EARLY WHICH MAY REQUIRE A -8 OR -9C...WITH
GUIDANCE GIVING US -6 TO -9C...FLOW APPEARS VERY SOUTHWEST...230 OR
SO...THE FURTHER NORTH LOCATION WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN/GRAUPEL AS ELEVS ARE
LOWER...BUT SHOULD BE VERY INTERESTING. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. REST
OF PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SHARP CHANGE TO MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG THETA E
RIDGE SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND HIGH
STRENGTHENS.
THE GFS STILL TRACKS THE FRONT TO THE EAST A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE
WRF...BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE THE SAME AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT STEADY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL
SET UP AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO ABOUT -7C. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPLY CLOSED
SYSTEM ROTATES OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL WITHDRAW
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARMUP THOUGH WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WE
EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL THICKEN THE MID CLOUD LAYER.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH NOTICEABLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
         THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SFM
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE/RSH

FXUS61 KBUF 110829
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
428 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS LOWERING VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE AT
TIMES MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW
LVL WIND SHEAR TILL AROUND 13Z MAINLY FROM ROCHESTER WESTWARD WHERE
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL VEAR QUICKLY TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS BETWEEN 15 HND AND 2 THSD FT.
THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A THREAT OF TSTMS AS WELL BUT AT THE PRESENT
TIME ONLY CB HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION.
LATER THIS EVENING THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE OF LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER NIAGARA
RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT FOR THE HARBOR BUT CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE
ERIE.
FOR LAKE ONTARIO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MEXICO BAY TO THE ST LAWRENCE BUT IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY COULD INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 3
TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE FOUND FARTHER
OFF SHORE OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEEK OF SUPERB AUTUMN WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
STEADY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT A
FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH..ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS LOOKS GOOD WITH AGAIN ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THAT DISCREPANCY IS
MINOR COMPARED TO THE CHANGES THE FRONT WILL BRING TO THE AREA.
THE STEADY SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY GOOD DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE DROPPED BACK ON THE POPS A BIT THURSDAY SUCH THAT
BUF/IAG METRO AREAS WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS.
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SET UP AS
850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO ABOUT -7C. THE FLOW BEING MORE OF A 220-230
DIRECTION WOULD SET UP THE LAKE EFFECT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
BUFFALO SUBURBS AND NIAGARA COUNTY. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
OF A RAIN/GRAUPEL MIX. HAVING A HARD TIME VISUALIZING WHAT
850MB-LAKE SFC TEMP DIFFERENCE OF 20-25C SO EARLY IN THE SEASON WILL
PRODUCE. IS -7C AT 850 COLD ENOUGH? CAN THE LAKE BE TOO WARM?
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS...IT WILL BE A RUDE WAKE UP CALL THAT
WINTER IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006/
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPLY CLOSED
SYSTEM ROTATES OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL WITHDRAW
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARMUP THOUGH WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
         AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
         AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM
         FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JJP
MARINE...JJP
SHORT TERM...JML

FXUS61 KBUF 111348
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF THE WARM
THAT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN A GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WHOLE DAY INSTEAD OF
JUST FOR THE AFTERNOON SINCE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
WELL EAST OF THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL
BE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND PARTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE THETA-E RIDGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 428 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006/
A WEEK OF SUPERB AUTUMN WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
STEADY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
A FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH..ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS LOOKS GOOD WITH AGAIN ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THAT DISCREPANCY IS
MINOR COMPARED TO THE CHANGES THE FRONT WILL BRING TO THE AREA.
THE STEADY SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY GOOD DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE DROPPED BACK ON THE POPS A BIT THURSDAY SUCH THAT
BUF/IAG METRO AREAS WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS.
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SET UP AS
850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO ABOUT -7C. THE FLOW BEING MORE OF A 220-230
DIRECTION WOULD SET UP THE LAKE EFFECT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
BUFFALO SUBURBS AND NIAGARA COUNTY. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
OF A RAIN/GRAUPEL MIX. HAVING A HARD TIME VISUALIZING WHAT
850MB-LAKE SFC TEMP DIFFERENCE OF 20-25C SO EARLY IN THE SEASON WILL
PRODUCE. IS -7C AT 850 COLD ENOUGH? CAN THE LAKE BE TOO WARM?
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS...IT WILL BE A RUDE WAKE UP CALL THAT
WINTER IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006/
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPLY CLOSED
SYSTEM ROTATES OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL WITHDRAW
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARMUP THOUGH WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS LOWERING VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE AT
TIMES MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW
LVL WIND SHEAR TILL AROUND 13Z MAINLY FROM ROCHESTER WESTWARD WHERE
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL VEAR QUICKLY TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS BETWEEN 15 HND AND 2 THSD FT.
THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A THREAT OF TSTMS AS WELL BUT AT THE PRESENT
TIME ONLY CB HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION.
LATER THIS EVENING THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE OF LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER NIAGARA
RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT FOR THE HARBOR BUT CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE
ERIE.
FOR LAKE ONTARIO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MEXICO BAY TO THE ST LAWRENCE BUT IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY COULD INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 3
TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE FOUND FARTHER
OFF SHORE OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
         AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
         AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP
MARINE...

FXUS61 KBUF 111348
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF THE WARM
THAT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN A GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WHOLE DAY INSTEAD OF
JUST FOR THE AFTERNOON SINCE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
WELL EAST OF THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL
BE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND PARTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE THETA-E RIDGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 428 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006/
A WEEK OF SUPERB AUTUMN WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
STEADY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT
A FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH..ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS LOOKS GOOD WITH AGAIN ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THAT DISCREPANCY IS
MINOR COMPARED TO THE CHANGES THE FRONT WILL BRING TO THE AREA.
THE STEADY SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY GOOD DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE DROPPED BACK ON THE POPS A BIT THURSDAY SUCH THAT
BUF/IAG METRO AREAS WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS.
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SET UP AS
850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO ABOUT -7C. THE FLOW BEING MORE OF A 220-230
DIRECTION WOULD SET UP THE LAKE EFFECT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
BUFFALO SUBURBS AND NIAGARA COUNTY. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
OF A RAIN/GRAUPEL MIX. HAVING A HARD TIME VISUALIZING WHAT
850MB-LAKE SFC TEMP DIFFERENCE OF 20-25C SO EARLY IN THE SEASON WILL
PRODUCE. IS -7C AT 850 COLD ENOUGH? CAN THE LAKE BE TOO WARM?
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS...IT WILL BE A RUDE WAKE UP CALL THAT
WINTER IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006/
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPLY CLOSED
SYSTEM ROTATES OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL WITHDRAW
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WARMING ALOFT. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST. ALONG WITH THE WARMUP THOUGH WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS LOWERING VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE AT
TIMES MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW
LVL WIND SHEAR TILL AROUND 13Z MAINLY FROM ROCHESTER WESTWARD WHERE
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL VEAR QUICKLY TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS BETWEEN 15 HND AND 2 THSD FT.
THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A THREAT OF TSTMS AS WELL BUT AT THE PRESENT
TIME ONLY CB HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION.
LATER THIS EVENING THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE OF LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER NIAGARA
RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT FOR THE HARBOR BUT CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE
ERIE.
FOR LAKE ONTARIO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MEXICO BAY TO THE ST LAWRENCE BUT IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY COULD INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 3
TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH HIGHER WAVES WILL BE FOUND FARTHER
OFF SHORE OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
         AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
         THURSDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
         AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP
MARINE...

FXUS61 KBUF 111943
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE
PCPN TO PICK UP AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. A
WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL THEN CAUSE THE
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...ALLOWING
850 MB TEMPS TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AS MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SETS UP OVER
THE LAKE. THE POSITION OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE LAKE WHICH WILL FAVOR
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN BUFFALO AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH IF THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
DAY.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER
AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES COULD PICK UP
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT EXPECT THE STEADIEST PCPN TO STAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY OVER JEFFERSON
COUNTY.
WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BACK ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF OUR CWA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WITH A WESTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD
AIR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO SUNDAY.
GOOD NEWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE LAKE
EFFECT WORRIES. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER OUR REGION INTO MID WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM MIDWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARMING FLOW WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
MVFR VSBYS CAN BE FOUND AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AS WELL. OF BIGGER
CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WINDS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WHILE
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE RAIN COOLED
AIR. THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT BEGINNING AROUND 07Z OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND MOVING THROUGH WATERTOWN BY 10 OR 11Z. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MFVR AND AREAS OF IFR. A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. IT WILL BE QUITE BRISK WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. MOST OF
THE REGION THURSDAY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THE AIR IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY GET
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043-045 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ044 FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
         FRIDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE

FXUS61 KBUF 111943
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE
PCPN TO PICK UP AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. A
WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL THEN CAUSE THE
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...ALLOWING
850 MB TEMPS TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AS MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SETS UP OVER
THE LAKE. THE POSITION OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE LAKE WHICH WILL FAVOR
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN BUFFALO AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH IF THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
DAY.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER
AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES COULD PICK UP
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT EXPECT THE STEADIEST PCPN TO STAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY OVER JEFFERSON
COUNTY.
WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BACK ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF OUR CWA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WITH A WESTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD
AIR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO SUNDAY.
GOOD NEWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE LAKE
EFFECT WORRIES. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER OUR REGION INTO MID WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM MIDWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARMING FLOW WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
MVFR VSBYS CAN BE FOUND AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AS WELL. OF BIGGER
CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
WINDS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WHILE
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE RAIN COOLED
AIR. THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT BEGINNING AROUND 07Z OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND MOVING THROUGH WATERTOWN BY 10 OR 11Z. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MFVR AND AREAS OF IFR. A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. IT WILL BE QUITE BRISK WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. MOST OF
THE REGION THURSDAY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THE AIR IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY GET
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043-045 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ044 FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
         FRIDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE

FXUS61 KBUF 120205
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006
.UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHING US ON
SCHEDULE...EXTENDING FROM HAMILTON TO LONG POINT TO ASHTABULA AT
01Z. THIS LINE IS MORE ACTIVE FURTHER SOUTH BUT NO LIGHTNING EVIDENT
THE PAST HOUR NORTH OF CNTRL OHIO. STILL...WILL MENTION ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS OUR CWA AS IT CROSSES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POTENT LL
JET OF 50KTS AT 3K FT STILL A BIT OF A CONCERN. MAIN COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS A FEW HOURS LATER AND SHOULD REACH GEN VLY OR SO BY SUNRISE.
EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHTER SHOWERS WITH THAT.
MASSIVE UPPER LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SPAWN DEEPENING
SFC LOW NORTH OF THE SOO. THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AND
RETROGRADE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LEADING TO SOME COMPLICATIONS WITH
ANY LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR US. SITUATION IS CLEAR CUT AT
FIRST...AS COLD AIR SWEEPS INTO WESTERN AREA THURS MORNING ON
240-250 VECTOR...EXPECT LK EFF RAINS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING BUF
METRO AREA WHICH MAY EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO ROCH FOR AWHILE...BUT
WITH LOW DRIFTING WEST...WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AS AFTERNOON GOES
ON...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A 200-210 TYPE VECTOR BY THURS EVENING.
IF THIS WORKS OUT...EXPECT ANY LK RAIN BAND TO LIFT NORTH INTO NIAG
COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY JUST ABOUT CLEAR OF OUR REGION INTO NIAG
PENINSULA OF ONTARIO FOR MUCH OF THURS NT INTO FRI. FLOW TURNS EVEN
MORE SOUTHERLY E OF LK ONTARIO SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO ST
LAWR VALLEY.
FLOW IS QUITE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF FRI...BUT AS LOW WOBBLES BACK EAST
AGAIN...NEXT TROF SWINGS THROUGH AND TURNS WINDS SW AND THEN VEERS
TO WEST FRI NT AND SAT...SO MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THEN.
NOW...AS FOR TEMPS...WE USUALLY USE A -7C AT 850MB FOR EARLY SEASON
RAIN/SNOW DEMARCATION...AND WE ONLY GET DOWN TO -5C OR SO THURS
EVE...AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND -7C FRI MORNING BEFORE BOUNCING BACK TO
-4C OR SO BY SATURDAY. SO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LOCATIONS
EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT (LOW ELEVS)...SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH
WITH SUCH DRASTIC INSTABILITY...CAN CERTAINLY SEE GRAUPEL AND
THUNDER ALONG WITH THE RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW BY FRI
NT/SAT AM OVER HIGHER ELEVS TO SOUTH AS FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND
ALLOWS LAKE ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO THOSE AREAS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...DID SOME MAJOR EDITING TO POP AND WX GRIDS
FOR REST OF TONIGHT AND THURS...WITH A MORE NORTHERLY LAKE PLUME AND
LOWER POPS OUTSIDE IT...BUT LEFT THURS NT/FRI ALONE FOR NOW. DID
ISSUE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO OUTLINE THE ABOVE THINKING. A SIDE
NOTE...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY THURS NT AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...WE WILL CONSIDER THIS IN NEXT PACKAGE. REST OF PREV AFD
FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 343 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DURING THE MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BACK ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF OUR CWA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WITH A WESTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD
AIR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO SUNDAY.
GOOD NEWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE LAKE
EFFECT WORRIES. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER OUR REGION INTO MID WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM MIDWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARMING FLOW WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND CIGS OF 4000-7000 FT
WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR WEATHER AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. CIGS MAY
DROP TO SHORT PERIODS OF IFR LEVELS FOR SITES SUCH AS JHW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY SFC
WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS BUF/JHW AROUND
06Z AND AND WILL CROSS ART ABOUT 09Z. A 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ON THURSDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST
SITES EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS (CIGS ARND 4K FT). SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST OF BOTH LKS
ERIE AND ONTARIO...SO THIS COULD PRODUCE TIMES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
FOR SITES LIKE BUF/IAG AND ART.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY (WEST OR ROC) BY DAYBREAK. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR
THE SHORELINE CAN BE EXPECTED TO 5 FOOTERS WELL OFFSHORE.
OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AFTER THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE. WE WILL NOT ISSUE GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME AS THE
TRACK OF THE LOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD DOES NOT PRODUCE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKES.
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043-045 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ044 FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
         FRIDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SFM
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE/RSH
MARINE...SAGE/RSH

FXUS61 KBUF 120820
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
420 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST INTO FINGER LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH
BULK OF STEADY PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. DEEP LOW UP NEAR JAMES BAY
CIRCULATING WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION
TODAY.
GENERALLY WENT WITH MM5 AND NAM/WRF WHICH SEEM TOGETHER IN
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY BEGINS TO MOVE IT NORTH AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SW. BAND INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS WE GET FETCH UP ENTIRE
LAKE WITH BAND MOVING NORTH OVER THE BUFFALO AREA...TWD ROC AND THEN
OSCILLATES BETWEEN BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BAND BY MID MORNING FRIDAY LIFTS
NORTH TO NIAGARA FALLS AND THEN OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. THE BAND THEN SHOULD MOVE BACK
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE BUFFALO AREA AGAIN. THE BAND SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTH SATURDAY WITH IT REACHING EAST TO THE ROCHESTER
AREA FOR A TIME THEN SETTLING TO THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS LATER IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A
MIX WITH SNOW AND POSSIBLY GOING TO ALL SNOW FOR A TIME INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO GIVE ACCMULATIONS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
GENERALLY START OUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH POSSIBLE
AS GROUND TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM. THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE
QUITE INTENSE WITH SOME THUNDER/GRAUPEL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA WHEN BAND SHOULD BECOME MOST INTENSE THIS
EVENING. IF IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH MORE INTENSE SNOW THE
SNOW FORECAST AMNTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT AND AFTER LOOKING AT NEXT
MODEL RUN. AGAIN THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN FINGER LKS TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH SHOULD BE MORE TWD THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME FRIDAY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FINGER LAKES TONIGHT
FOR ANY CLEARING. SOME FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD
AIR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO SUNDAY.
GOOD NEWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE LAKE
EFFECT WORRIES. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER OUR REGION INTO MID WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM MIDWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARMING FLOW WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE
MORNING. SOME LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.  VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE
VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN DUNKIRK
AND BUFFALO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LAKE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER BUFFALO DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
PRODUCING ROUGH WATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042-043 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...APB
MARINE...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 121352
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.UPDATE...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR IMMED BUFFALO AREA WHICH COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS. LAKE EFFECT PROCESS UNDERWAY IN
EARNEST...A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND TEMPS ALSO A BIT COLDER
THAN PROGGED AT THIS TIME AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SITUATION
WELL IN HAND...BUT A COUPLE OF TROUBLING TRENDS BEGINNING TO APPEAR
UPSTREAM.
OUR CONCERNS ARE FOR LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND THE PRECIP TYPE AS
WE WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL IN REGARDS TO RAIN OR SNOW AFTER DARK
TONIGHT. 06Z MESOSCALE MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS ERIE COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO
GENESEE AND EVEN WRN MONROE AT TIMES. IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY RAIN
WITH PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL MIXED IN. SOME SIGNS OF IT BREAKING UP A
BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REORIENTING ITSELF ON A MORE 230
VECTOR THIS EVENING AND REALLY INTENSIFYING...REMAINING IN PLACE
WELL INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AS
FLOW BACKS EVEN FURTHER.
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALMOST HISTORIC WITH SUCH A SITUATION
WITH A 62 DEGREE LAKE INVOLVED MAKE THIS ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE WAY UP INTO 1200-1500 J/KG RANGE...INVERSION/EQUIL
LEVELS ARE OVER 20K FT! SO LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL WILL BE COMMON.
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE.
WE USUALLY USE A CUTOFF OF -7C OR SO FOR AN 850 MB TEMP IN EARLY
SEASON STORMS...BUT THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN EARLY! MODELS SUGGEST
THE 850'S BOTTOM OUT IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH AIR
FLOWING OFF THE 62 DEG LAKE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE THAT ANY WET SNOW
WOULD MELT ON SURFACE...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE EXTREME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STICKING. ALSO...BOTH DETROIT AND GREEN BAY 12Z
RAOBS ARE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS 1-2 DEG COLDER THAN MODEL
PROGS...AND DEW PTS ARE VERY LOW UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND MICH...THIS
WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE THREAT FOR SNOW.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUF HAS NEVER HAD A 4 INCH FALL THIS EARLY...AT
LEAST IN 100 YRS OR SO...BUT WE CANT FORECAST BASED ON THAT.
STILL...WITH WIND COMING UP A 200 MILE FETCH OF 60 DEGREE LAKE
ERIE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE ENOUGH MODIFICATION TO PRECLUDE HEAVY
ACCUMS.
SO...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY
SURFACES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF BUF INTO NIAG AND
ORLEANS...WITH BETTER CHC INLAND...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD HAVE A REAL PROBLEM IF SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATES
ON LEAF LADEN TREES. WILL DIGEST THE 12Z GUIDANCE AND UPDATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FINGER LAKES TONIGHT
FOR ANY CLEARING. SOME FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD
AIR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO SUNDAY.
GOOD NEWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE LAKE
EFFECT WORRIES. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER OUR REGION INTO MID WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM MIDWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARMING FLOW WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
DUNKIRK AND BUFFALO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LAKE RAIN WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER BUFFALO DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME MIXED WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
PRODUCING ROUGH WATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...APB
MARINE...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 121352
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.UPDATE...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR IMMED BUFFALO AREA WHICH COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS. LAKE EFFECT PROCESS UNDERWAY IN
EARNEST...A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND TEMPS ALSO A BIT COLDER
THAN PROGGED AT THIS TIME AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SITUATION
WELL IN HAND...BUT A COUPLE OF TROUBLING TRENDS BEGINNING TO APPEAR
UPSTREAM.
OUR CONCERNS ARE FOR LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND THE PRECIP TYPE AS
WE WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL IN REGARDS TO RAIN OR SNOW AFTER DARK
TONIGHT. 06Z MESOSCALE MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS ERIE COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO
GENESEE AND EVEN WRN MONROE AT TIMES. IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY RAIN
WITH PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL MIXED IN. SOME SIGNS OF IT BREAKING UP A
BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REORIENTING ITSELF ON A MORE 230
VECTOR THIS EVENING AND REALLY INTENSIFYING...REMAINING IN PLACE
WELL INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AS
FLOW BACKS EVEN FURTHER.
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALMOST HISTORIC WITH SUCH A SITUATION
WITH A 62 DEGREE LAKE INVOLVED MAKE THIS ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE WAY UP INTO 1200-1500 J/KG RANGE...INVERSION/EQUIL
LEVELS ARE OVER 20K FT! SO LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL WILL BE COMMON.
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE.
WE USUALLY USE A CUTOFF OF -7C OR SO FOR AN 850 MB TEMP IN EARLY
SEASON STORMS...BUT THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN EARLY! MODELS SUGGEST
THE 850'S BOTTOM OUT IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH AIR
FLOWING OFF THE 62 DEG LAKE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE THAT ANY WET SNOW
WOULD MELT ON SURFACE...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE EXTREME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STICKING. ALSO...BOTH DETROIT AND GREEN BAY 12Z
RAOBS ARE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS 1-2 DEG COLDER THAN MODEL
PROGS...AND DEW PTS ARE VERY LOW UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND MICH...THIS
WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE THREAT FOR SNOW.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUF HAS NEVER HAD A 4 INCH FALL THIS EARLY...AT
LEAST IN 100 YRS OR SO...BUT WE CANT FORECAST BASED ON THAT.
STILL...WITH WIND COMING UP A 200 MILE FETCH OF 60 DEGREE LAKE
ERIE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE ENOUGH MODIFICATION TO PRECLUDE HEAVY
ACCUMS.
SO...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY
SURFACES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF BUF INTO NIAG AND
ORLEANS...WITH BETTER CHC INLAND...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD HAVE A REAL PROBLEM IF SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATES
ON LEAF LADEN TREES. WILL DIGEST THE 12Z GUIDANCE AND UPDATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FINGER LAKES TONIGHT
FOR ANY CLEARING. SOME FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD
AIR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO SUNDAY.
GOOD NEWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND THERE IS ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE LAKE
EFFECT WORRIES. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER OUR REGION INTO MID WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM MIDWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER WITH THE
WARMING FLOW WILL COME THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
DUNKIRK AND BUFFALO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LAKE RAIN WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER BUFFALO DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME MIXED WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
PRODUCING ROUGH WATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...APB
MARINE...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 121831
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.SYNOPSIS...
DRAMATIC AND POSSIBLY HISTORIC EVENT UNDERWAY FOR METRO BUFFALO.
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT BAND ALREADY IN PLACE AND WITH
CONVERGENCE...UPLIFT AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC COOLING...PRECIP TYPE
ALREADY BECOMING FROZEN IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...EVEN RIGHT OVER THE
LAKE. THIS LEADS TO A GREATER CHANCE OF WET SNOW AFTER DARK...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO TREE AND POWER PROBLEMS AS TREES REMAIN IN FULL LEAF.
WILL THEREFORE HOIST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING (OUR EARLIEST IN
HISTORY) FOR THE 4 COUNTY AREA OF NORTHERN ERIE/NIAGARA/ORLEANS AND
GENESEE FROM 8 PM TO 6 AM FRIDAY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EASE FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE
DETAILS...
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WELL...SNOW IS COMING DOWN OUTSIDE THE OFFICE ALREADY AT 18Z...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS ALREADY TURNED OVER TO SNOW AND SLEET...STILL EXPECT
PRECIP TO VARY IN TYPE DEPENDING UPON INTENSITY THROUGH DARK...THEN
TEND TO GO TO WET SNOW AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OF CITY.
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALMOST HISTORIC WITH SUCH A SITUATION
WITH A 62 DEGREE LAKE INVOLVED MAKE THIS ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE WAY UP INTO 1200-1500 J/KG RANGE...INVERSION/EQUIL
LEVELS ARE OVER 20K FT! SO LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL WILL BE COMMON.
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE.
WE USUALLY USE A CUTOFF OF -7C OR SO FOR AN 850 MB TEMP IN EARLY
SEASON STORMS...BUT THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN EARLY! MODELS SUGGEST
THE 850'S BOTTOM OUT IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH AIR
FLOWING OFF THE 62 DEG LAKE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE THAT ANY WET SNOW
WOULD MELT ON SURFACE...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE EXTREME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STICKING. ALSO...BOTH DETROIT AND GREEN BAY 12Z
RAOBS ARE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS 1-2 DEG COLDER THAN MODEL
PROGS...AND DEW PTS ARE VERY LOW UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND MICH...THIS
WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE THREAT FOR SNOW.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUF HAS NEVER HAD A 4 INCH FALL THIS EARLY...AT
LEAST IN 100 YRS OR SO (SEE CLIMO SECTION)...BUT WE CANT FORECAST
BASED ON THAT. STILL...WITH WIND COMING UP A 200 MILE FETCH OF 60
DEGREE LAKE ERIE...MAY BE ENOUGH MODIFICATION TO PRECLUDE
HEAVY ACCUMS.
BUT...WILL PLAY IT PRUDENT AND ISSUE THE WARNING...AND GO WITH
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 6. WARNING IS NOT BASED ON
ACTUAL AMOUNTS BUT THE IMPACT OF AN UNPRECEDENTED EARLY SEASON EVENT.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AND COLD TONIGHT...FROST POTENTIAL INLAND...WILL
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES FOR OUR COUNTIES WHICH STILL ARE IN GROWING
SEASON.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT MAY LINGER OVER NIAG COUNTY EARLY...THEN LOW FINALLY OPENS UP
AND SENDS A TROF ACROSS REGION FRI NT AND SAT. WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS...LOW LIKELY E AND NE OF LAKES FRI NT...MOSTLY RAIN BUT A BIT
OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. DRY WX RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...HOWEVER
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS. MVFR IS EXPECTED NEAR
WATERTOWN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. FRIDAY SHOULD BE VFR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DIURNAL MIXING FROM
ALOFT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALLS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN OCTOBER ARE VERY RARE IN BUFFALO. HERE
THEY ARE...
OCT 13 1909.. 6.0
OCT 31 1917.. 6.0
OCT 18 1972.. 2.3
OCT 26 1962.. 2.0
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 FROM 8 PM
     THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ003>006-012>014-019-085 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY
     TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...SAGE
CLIMATE...SFM

FXUS61 KBUF 122320
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.UPDATE...
A NARROW BAND OF WET SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY...INCLUDING METRO BUFFALO. THE MAIN
IMPACT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BRING DOWN NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS
AND POWER LINES...BUT THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW SEEMS TO BE HOLDING
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST WRF12 MODEL
SUGGESTS THE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE THOUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE RANGE OF THE GENERAL SNOWFALL TO 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...BUT THIS AMOUNT MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD IF SPOTTER REPORTS WARRANT IT.
ALSO UPDATED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE IMPACT OF THE WET SNOW ON BRINGING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALMOST HISTORIC WITH SUCH A
SITUATION WITH A 62 DEGREE LAKE INVOLVED MAKE THIS ALMOST
UNPRECEDENTED. LAKE INDUCED CAPES ARE WAY UP INTO 1200-1500 J/KG
RANGE...INVERSION/EQUIL LEVELS ARE OVER 20K FT! SO LIGHTNING AND
GRAUPEL WILL BE COMMON. QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE.
WE USUALLY USE A CUTOFF OF -7C OR SO FOR AN 850 MB TEMP IN EARLY
SEASON STORMS...BUT THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN EARLY! MODELS SUGGEST
THE 850'S BOTTOM OUT IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH AIR
FLOWING OFF THE 62 DEG LAKE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE THAT ANY WET SNOW
WOULD MELT ON SURFACE...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE EXTREME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STICKING. ALSO...BOTH DETROIT AND GREEN BAY 12Z
RAOBS ARE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS 1-2 DEG COLDER THAN MODEL
PROGS...AND DEW PTS ARE VERY LOW UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND MICH...THIS
WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE THREAT FOR SNOW.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUF HAS NEVER HAD A 4 INCH FALL THIS EARLY...AT
LEAST IN 100 YRS OR SO (SEE CLIMO SECTION)...BUT WE CANT FORECAST
BASED ON THAT. STILL...WITH WIND COMING UP A 200 MILE FETCH OF 60
DEGREE LAKE ERIE...MAY BE ENOUGH MODIFICATION TO PRECLUDE
HEAVY ACCUMS.
BUT...WILL PLAY IT PRUDENT AND ISSUE THE WARNING...AND GO WITH
GENERAL 1 TO TO 3 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. WARNING IS NOT BASED ON ACTUAL AMOUNTS
BUT THE IMPACT OF AN UNPRECEDENTED EARLY SEASON EVENT.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AND COLD TONIGHT...FROST POTENTIAL INLAND...WILL
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES FOR OUR COUNTIES WHICH STILL ARE IN GROWING
SEASON.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT MAY LINGER OVER NIAG COUNTY EARLY...THEN LOW FINALLY OPENS UP
AND SENDS A TROF ACROSS REGION FRI NT AND SAT. WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS...LOW LIKELY E AND NE OF LAKES FRI NT...MOSTLY RAIN BUT A BIT
OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. DRY WX RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AVIATION...
TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...HOWEVER
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS. MVFR IS EXPECTED NEAR
WATERTOWN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. FRIDAY SHOULD BE VFR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DIURNAL MIXING FROM
ALOFT.
CLIMATE...
SNOWFALLS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN OCTOBER ARE VERY RARE IN BUFFALO. HERE
THEY ARE...
OCT 13 1909.. 6.0
OCT 31 1917.. 6.0
OCT 18 1972.. 2.3
OCT 26 1962.. 2.0
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ003>006-012>014-019-085 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY
     TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 130228
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.UPDATE...
THE INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...THEN
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS IMPACT THAT THE WET HEAVY
SNOW IS HAVING ON BRINGING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY.
ALSO PLAN TO INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR ALL WARNED AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 720 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
UPDATE...
A NARROW BAND OF WET SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY...INCLUDING METRO BUFFALO. THE MAIN
IMPACT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BRING DOWN NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS
AND POWER LINES...BUT THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW SEEMS TO BE HOLDING
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST WRF12 MODEL
SUGGESTS THE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE THOUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE RANGE OF THE GENERAL SNOWFALL TO 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...BUT THIS AMOUNT MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD IF SPOTTER REPORTS WARRANT IT.
ALSO UPDATED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE IMPACT OF THE WET SNOW ON BRINGING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALMOST HISTORIC WITH SUCH A
SITUATION WITH A 62 DEGREE LAKE INVOLVED MAKE THIS ALMOST
UNPRECEDENTED. LAKE INDUCED CAPES ARE WAY UP INTO 1200-1500 J/KG
RANGE...INVERSION/EQUIL LEVELS ARE OVER 20K FT! SO LIGHTNING AND
GRAUPEL WILL BE COMMON. QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE.
WE USUALLY USE A CUTOFF OF -7C OR SO FOR AN 850 MB TEMP IN EARLY
SEASON STORMS...BUT THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN EARLY! MODELS SUGGEST
THE 850'S BOTTOM OUT IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH AIR
FLOWING OFF THE 62 DEG LAKE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE THAT ANY WET SNOW
WOULD MELT ON SURFACE...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE EXTREME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STICKING. ALSO...BOTH DETROIT AND GREEN BAY 12Z
RAOBS ARE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS 1-2 DEG COLDER THAN MODEL
PROGS...AND DEW PTS ARE VERY LOW UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND MICH...THIS
WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE THREAT FOR SNOW.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUF HAS NEVER HAD A 4 INCH FALL THIS EARLY...AT
LEAST IN 100 YRS OR SO (SEE CLIMO SECTION)...BUT WE CANT FORECAST
BASED ON THAT. STILL...WITH WIND COMING UP A 200 MILE FETCH OF 60
DEGREE LAKE ERIE...MAY BE ENOUGH MODIFICATION TO PRECLUDE
HEAVY ACCUMS.
BUT...WILL PLAY IT PRUDENT AND ISSUE THE WARNING...AND GO WITH
GENERAL 1 TO TO 3 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. WARNING IS NOT BASED ON ACTUAL AMOUNTS
BUT THE IMPACT OF AN UNPRECEDENTED EARLY SEASON EVENT.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AND COLD TONIGHT...FROST POTENTIAL INLAND...WILL
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES FOR OUR COUNTIES WHICH STILL ARE IN GROWING
SEASON.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT MAY LINGER OVER NIAG COUNTY EARLY...THEN LOW FINALLY OPENS UP
AND SENDS A TROF ACROSS REGION FRI NT AND SAT. WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS...LOW LIKELY E AND NE OF LAKES FRI NT...MOSTLY RAIN BUT A BIT
OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. DRY WX RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AVIATION...
TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...HOWEVER
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS. MVFR IS EXPECTED NEAR
WATERTOWN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. FRIDAY SHOULD BE VFR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DIURNAL MIXING FROM
ALOFT.
CLIMATE...
SNOWFALLS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN OCTOBER ARE VERY RARE IN BUFFALO. HERE
THEY ARE...
OCT 13 1909.. 6.0
OCT 31 1917.. 6.0
OCT 18 1972.. 2.3
OCT 26 1962.. 2.0
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011-085 UNTIL 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ003>006-012>014 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 130228
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006
.UPDATE...
THE INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...THEN
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS IMPACT THAT THE WET HEAVY
SNOW IS HAVING ON BRINGING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY.
ALSO PLAN TO INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR ALL WARNED AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 720 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
UPDATE...
A NARROW BAND OF WET SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY...INCLUDING METRO BUFFALO. THE MAIN
IMPACT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BRING DOWN NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS
AND POWER LINES...BUT THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW SEEMS TO BE HOLDING
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST WRF12 MODEL
SUGGESTS THE MAIN LAKE BAND WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE THOUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE RANGE OF THE GENERAL SNOWFALL TO 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...BUT THIS AMOUNT MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD IF SPOTTER REPORTS WARRANT IT.
ALSO UPDATED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE IMPACT OF THE WET SNOW ON BRINGING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALMOST HISTORIC WITH SUCH A
SITUATION WITH A 62 DEGREE LAKE INVOLVED MAKE THIS ALMOST
UNPRECEDENTED. LAKE INDUCED CAPES ARE WAY UP INTO 1200-1500 J/KG
RANGE...INVERSION/EQUIL LEVELS ARE OVER 20K FT! SO LIGHTNING AND
GRAUPEL WILL BE COMMON. QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE.
WE USUALLY USE A CUTOFF OF -7C OR SO FOR AN 850 MB TEMP IN EARLY
SEASON STORMS...BUT THIS IS EVEN EARLIER THAN EARLY! MODELS SUGGEST
THE 850'S BOTTOM OUT IN THE -6 TO -7 RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH AIR
FLOWING OFF THE 62 DEG LAKE...WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE THAT ANY WET SNOW
WOULD MELT ON SURFACE...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE EXTREME WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STICKING. ALSO...BOTH DETROIT AND GREEN BAY 12Z
RAOBS ARE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS 1-2 DEG COLDER THAN MODEL
PROGS...AND DEW PTS ARE VERY LOW UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND MICH...THIS
WOULD FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE THREAT FOR SNOW.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUF HAS NEVER HAD A 4 INCH FALL THIS EARLY...AT
LEAST IN 100 YRS OR SO (SEE CLIMO SECTION)...BUT WE CANT FORECAST
BASED ON THAT. STILL...WITH WIND COMING UP A 200 MILE FETCH OF 60
DEGREE LAKE ERIE...MAY BE ENOUGH MODIFICATION TO PRECLUDE
HEAVY ACCUMS.
BUT...WILL PLAY IT PRUDENT AND ISSUE THE WARNING...AND GO WITH
GENERAL 1 TO TO 3 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. WARNING IS NOT BASED ON ACTUAL AMOUNTS
BUT THE IMPACT OF AN UNPRECEDENTED EARLY SEASON EVENT.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AND COLD TONIGHT...FROST POTENTIAL INLAND...WILL
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES FOR OUR COUNTIES WHICH STILL ARE IN GROWING
SEASON.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT MAY LINGER OVER NIAG COUNTY EARLY...THEN LOW FINALLY OPENS UP
AND SENDS A TROF ACROSS REGION FRI NT AND SAT. WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS...LOW LIKELY E AND NE OF LAKES FRI NT...MOSTLY RAIN BUT A BIT
OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. DRY WX RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AVIATION...
TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...HOWEVER
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS. MVFR IS EXPECTED NEAR
WATERTOWN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. FRIDAY SHOULD BE VFR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL SITES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DIURNAL MIXING FROM
ALOFT.
CLIMATE...
SNOWFALLS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN OCTOBER ARE VERY RARE IN BUFFALO. HERE
THEY ARE...
OCT 13 1909.. 6.0
OCT 31 1917.. 6.0
OCT 18 1972.. 2.3
OCT 26 1962.. 2.0
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011-085 UNTIL 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ003>006-012>014 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 130802
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
A SNOW STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS CONTINUES TO POUND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES ARE COMMON IN
METRO BUFFALO. THE HEAVY SNOW ON LEAF COVERED TREES HAS CAUSED
WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION OF TREES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES.
THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SNOWBAND WILL REMAIN STEADY
STATE THROUGH 09Z...THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS THE STEERING
WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND UNTIL 8 AM
FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. AS THE FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
SNOWBANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT THEN CROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY. WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TONIGHT BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY. A
WESTERLY FLOW OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL SET UP SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA
FALLS INTO MID MORNING WHEN WARMING AND SHIFTING WINDS WILL MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE MID AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 10 AM
     FRIDAY.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ085 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
     FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ004>006-013-014 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...APB

FXUS61 KBUF 131228
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
828 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006
.UPDATE...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED
AS WELL AS ALL REMAINING FREEZE ADVISORIES. UPDATED THE ZFP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.
THE MAIN LAKE SNOW BAND HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH INTO NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH MICHIGAN. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
A SNOW STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS CONTINUES TO POUND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES ARE COMMON IN
METRO BUFFALO. THE HEAVY SNOW ON LEAF COVERED TREES HAS CAUSED
WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION OF TREES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES.
THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SNOWBAND WILL REMAIN STEADY
STATE THROUGH 09Z...THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS THE STEERING
WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND UNTIL 8 AM
FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. AS THE FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
SNOWBANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT THEN CROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY. WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TONIGHT BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY. A
WESTERLY FLOW OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL SET UP SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA
FALLS INTO MID MORNING WHEN WARMING AND SHIFTING WINDS WILL MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE MID AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 10 AM
     FRIDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 131403
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006
.UPDATE...
THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH OF METRO BUFFALO
AND COVERS MOST OF NIAGARA AND WESTERN ORLEANS COUNTIES. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WILL LET ALL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS EXPIRE
AT 10 AM...BUT WILL MENTION ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR NIAGARA
COUNTY.
EVEN THOUGH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WINDING DOWN...THE IMPACT FROM THE
STORM WILL BE FELT FOR SOME TIME. OUR FIRST CONCERN IS THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SO MUCH SNOW ON TREES AND POWER
LINES...WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE A TENUOUS
SITUATION. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS IN ANOTHER SPS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLITY OF GENERAL AREA FLOODING
AND FLOODING OF STREAM AND CREEKS WHEN THE MOISTURE LADEN SNOW
PACK BEGINS TO MELT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE SNOW DID FALL OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN HEADWATER LOCATIONS...
IF THE SNOW DOES BEGIN TO MELT MORE QUICKLY WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. ALSO
SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROAHCES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 828 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006/
UPDATE...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED
AS WELL AS ALL REMAINING FREEZE ADVISORIES. UPDATED THE ZFP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.
THE MAIN LAKE SNOW BAND HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH INTO NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH MICHIGAN. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
A SNOW STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS CONTINUES TO POUND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES ARE COMMON IN
METRO BUFFALO. THE HEAVY SNOW ON LEAF COVERED TREES HAS CAUSED
WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION OF TREES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES.
THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SNOWBAND WILL REMAIN STEADY
STATE THROUGH 09Z...THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS THE STEERING
WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND UNTIL 8 AM
FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. AS THE FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
SNOWBANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT THEN CROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY. WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TONIGHT BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY. A
WESTERLY FLOW OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL SET UP SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA
FALLS INTO MID MORNING WHEN WARMING AND SHIFTING WINDS WILL MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE MID AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         GALE WARNING FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM
         SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 131403
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006
.UPDATE...
THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH OF METRO BUFFALO
AND COVERS MOST OF NIAGARA AND WESTERN ORLEANS COUNTIES. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WILL LET ALL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS EXPIRE
AT 10 AM...BUT WILL MENTION ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR NIAGARA
COUNTY.
EVEN THOUGH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WINDING DOWN...THE IMPACT FROM THE
STORM WILL BE FELT FOR SOME TIME. OUR FIRST CONCERN IS THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SO MUCH SNOW ON TREES AND POWER
LINES...WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE A TENUOUS
SITUATION. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS IN ANOTHER SPS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLITY OF GENERAL AREA FLOODING
AND FLOODING OF STREAM AND CREEKS WHEN THE MOISTURE LADEN SNOW
PACK BEGINS TO MELT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE SNOW DID FALL OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN HEADWATER LOCATIONS...
IF THE SNOW DOES BEGIN TO MELT MORE QUICKLY WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. ALSO
SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROAHCES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 828 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006/
UPDATE...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED
AS WELL AS ALL REMAINING FREEZE ADVISORIES. UPDATED THE ZFP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.
THE MAIN LAKE SNOW BAND HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH INTO NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH MICHIGAN. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
A SNOW STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS CONTINUES TO POUND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES ARE COMMON IN
METRO BUFFALO. THE HEAVY SNOW ON LEAF COVERED TREES HAS CAUSED
WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION OF TREES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES.
THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SNOWBAND WILL REMAIN STEADY
STATE THROUGH 09Z...THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS THE STEERING
WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND UNTIL 8 AM
FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. AS THE FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
SNOWBANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT THEN CROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY. WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TONIGHT BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY. A
WESTERLY FLOW OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL SET UP SOME MINOR LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY GOOD NEWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
WARMING FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S.
THE MILDER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL HOLD OFF THE
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST AND ALL AREAS
FOR TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME LOOK PRUDENT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL.
AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS BUFFALO AND NIAGARA
FALLS INTO MID MORNING WHEN WARMING AND SHIFTING WINDS WILL MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE MID AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM
     SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         GALE WARNING FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM
         SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJP

FXUS61 KBUF 131920
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE MOST DEVASTATING SNOW STORM EVER IN OCTOBER FOR THE
BUFFALO AREA WE HAVE JUST BEGUN TO PICK UP THE PIECES. WIDESPREAD
TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...18 OF 21 WEATHER
SERVICE PERSONNEL ARE WITHOUT POWER...MANY WHO HAVE REPORTED
SEVERE TREE DAMAGE.
THE CURRENT SITUATION IS IN THE IMPROVING STAGE BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
QUITE BRISK. THE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY HELPING THOUGH BY BLOWING
THE SNOW OFF WEIGHTED LIMBS THAT HAVEN'T BROKEN YET. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S IS HELPING ALLEVIATE NEW
BREAKAGE.
THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS CONSIDERING
THE BRISK MIXING WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS
BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL
ALSO TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT AGAIN FROM BUFFALO NORTHWARD BUT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS
MAY CAUSE SOME FLOOD CONCERNS SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ERIE...NIAGARA...GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES.
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C RANGE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
NOW FOR A LITTLE GOOD NEWS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. A SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE
RAIN FREE WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 50.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE WITH WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WARMER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE SCHEDULED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO OCTOBER WX FOR THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE MOVES TO
EAST COAST. WE WILL BE GENERALLY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR...ALTHOUGH BULK OF ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO FAVOR TUES NT INTO
WED AND AGAIN AHEAD OF FROPA ON FRIDAY. STILL...WILL HOLD CHC POPS
EACH PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THEY
WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS ANOTHER TROF SWINGS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KBUF AND KIAG
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BRISK JUST ALOFT SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE.
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFTS WILL REMAIN FOR ALL NEARSHORES THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE ERIE AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
NEARSHORES.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFTS WILL REMAIN FOR ALL NEARSHORES THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE ERIE AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
NEARSHORES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAPID MELTING UNDERWAY OF THIS MASSIVE SNOWPACK...FROM ABOVE AND
BELOW DUE TO WARM GROUND. RAIN LATER TONIGHT WILL AGGRAVATE THIS
SITUATION WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH TO 0.50 INCH EXPECTED. THE PACK
CONTAINS A GOOD TWO TO THREE INCHES OF WATER AND SHOULD RELEASE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS SHOULD BRING BUF AREA CREEKS UP
TO NEAR BANKFUL AND WILL BE MONITORED...WITH GREATEST THREAT ON
ELLICOTT CRK SUNDAY AND LOWER TONAWANDA CREEK MON-TUES. SNOWMELT
FLOODING IN RESIDENTIAL AREAS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BASEMENTS
WHICH WILL HAVE INOPERABLE SUMP PUMPS DUE TO THE LACK OF POWER TO
WELL OVER HALF THE POPULATION OF THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS FREAKISH OUT OF SEASON EVENT LITERALLY SMASHED ALL EARLY SEASON
SNOWFALL RECORDS AT BUFFALO. THE 22.6 INCHES AT THE AIRPORT...ALL
FALLING IN ABOUT 14 HOURS...WAS REMARKABLE AND COMPARES WITH THE
PREVIOUS 6 INCH RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SET WAY BACK IN 1909
AND 1917. BUFFALO HAS NEVER HAD SUCH A SNOWFALL BEFORE NOVEMBER 20
IN ANY YEAR.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         GALE WARNING FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...SFM
HYDROLOGY...SFM
CLIMATE...SFM

FXUS61 KBUF 141348
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME AREAS
COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION OF HEAVY WET
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES BASED ON IMPACT OF THIS HEAVY WET SNOW
ON LEAFED OUT TREES AND POWER LINES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 509 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
ERIE...NIAGARA...GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM.
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS
2C TO MINUS 4C RANGE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MIX THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE. THE POPS SHLD DROP TO SLGT CHANCE RANGE OR LESS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH A BEST GUESS OF 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE TUG
HILL REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SLGT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP EAST
OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY DROPPING TO SLGT CHANCE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GIVE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMS SUN MRNG EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN THE MRNG. GENLY A COATING TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE
PTLY CLDY SKIES.
SUNDAY NGIHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA SPREAD DRIER
AND MILDER AIR OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO OCTOBER WX FOR THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE MOVES TO
EAST COAST. WE WILL BE GENERALLY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR...ALTHOUGH BULK OF ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO FAVOR TUES NT INTO
WED AND AGAIN AHEAD OF FROPA ON FRIDAY. STILL...WILL HOLD CHC POPS
EACH PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WED INTO FRI.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN
SHOWERS TODAY.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY, BUT ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AWHILD DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085 FROM 9 AM
     SUNDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 141408
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME AREAS
COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION OF HEAVY WET
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES BASED ON IMPACT OF THIS HEAVY WET SNOW
ON LEAFED OUT TREES AND POWER LINES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 509 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
ERIE...NIAGARA...GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM.
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS
2C TO MINUS 4C RANGE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MIX THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WHERE A COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE. THE POPS SHLD DROP TO SLGT CHANCE RANGE OR LESS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP EAST OF
THE LAKES WITH A BEST GUESS OF 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE TUG
HILL REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SLGT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP EAST
OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY DROPPING TO SLGT CHANCE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GIVE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMS SUN MRNG EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN THE MRNG. GENLY A COATING TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE
PTLY CLDY SKIES.
SUNDAY NGIHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA SPREAD DRIER
AND MILDER AIR OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO OCTOBER WX FOR THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE MOVES TO
EAST COAST. WE WILL BE GENERALLY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR...ALTHOUGH BULK OF ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO FAVOR TUES NT INTO
WED AND AGAIN AHEAD OF FROPA ON FRIDAY. STILL...WILL HOLD CHC POPS
EACH PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WED INTO FRI.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN
SHOWERS TODAY.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY, BUT ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AWHILD DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085 FROM 9 AM
     SUNDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>044 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMA

FXUS61 KBUF 141929
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...WITH
UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. FRONT WILL
PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...ALSO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
WITH SNOWMELT POTENTIAL CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL AREA
CREEKS APPROACHING FLOOD WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FAVORABLE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TAP INTO FULL FETCH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR -5C SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY AND WET LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WITH MAIN ORIENTATION OF BAND ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. LAKE BAND
REACHING ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AS FULL
FETCH OF THE LAKE IS REACHED. SNOW COULD BE FALLING AT A RATE OF 1-2
INCHES AN HOUR. THE LAKE BAND LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WORK NORTHWARD
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LIKELY REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WATERTOWN.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BASED ON NAM12 QPF WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 5-10
INCHES RANGE LOOK REASONABLE. WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
AS THIS HEAVY WET SNOW COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO FULLY
LEAFED OUT TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OFF OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. A BIT MORE SHEAR IN MODEL PROFILES ACROSS THIS
AREA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD BRING SUNSHINE AND MORE
MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING RIDGE WORKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY. NEARLY AL OF THE ASREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OCTOBER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND CLEAR KART BY 21Z. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 21Z
...MAINLY EAST OF KROC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL SET UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT KJHW BTW 03Z
TO 12Z. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
BETWEEN KSYR AND KART. THE LAKE SNOW BAND MAY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS VCNTY KART BTW 10Z AND
15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ006>008 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO
     6 PM SUNDAY.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001-002-010-011 UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ040-041 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042 UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ043-044 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ045 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...TJP